Is Obama a Sure Winner?

Kos says that if Obama runs, he will win. I am not so sure about that, but here is his thinking...

Iowa is right next door to Obama's Illinois, and while Vilsack will win it (getting no boost out of it), the race for second-place will determine the "true" winner. Hillary, for now, appears to be bypassing Iowa. So the early battle would appear to be between Edwards and Obama. A 2-3 finish for these guys, in any order, leaves them in good shape moving forward.

Nevada will be a battle between Edwards and his union allies, and Richardson and his southwestern and Latino base. New Hampshire will be fertile territory for Hillary and maybe Kerry (they hate Richardson because he pushed to insert Nevada into the calendar ahead of New Hampshire). And then South Carolina. With Iowa out of the big picture thanks to Vilsack, and New Hampshire diluted by Nevada, South Carolina may well decide our nominee in 2008. Richardson thinks he can win the state (I'm not sure how), and he, Edwards and Clark will stake their entire bids on the state. But given the state's large African American population, along with Obama's popularity with female voters (yeah, they love him), and it's tough to see how the rest, splitting the dwindling white male vote, can overcome those hurdles.

There's one thing that could put a skid on Obama's fast rise -- an Al Gore entrance into the race. Other than that, I don't see a way anyone stops him.

I agree that Iowa is a race between Vilsack, Edwards, and Obama. Bayh will think he can get into that group, but will have a hard time differentiating himself from Vilsack (same thing can be said about Richardson). Bayh will have a hard time breaking single digits.

As for Obama, I feel that I would rather see him stay on the sidelines. The primary process is a difficult one where a lot of mud is tossed around. Democrats would be better off if Obama did not run and then named him as the VP candidate. You get the rock star boost, Obama wouldn't get dirtied up, and then he would be ready to run for President in 2016, when he is 55. With all of that said, Obama is still near the top of my list.

A Look at Vilsack's Campaign

Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post gives the case for a Vilsack Presidential run and a case against a Vilsack Presidential run. Though, both provide basic arguments, they are worth checking out. I agree with Cillizza that the number one thing Vilsack has going for him is geography.

The other primary argument in Vilsack's favor is geography. John Kerry's narrow loss in 2004 has made many within the party wary of nominating another northeastern candidate (Sen. Clinton, we're looking at you). The argument is that a candidate from the Midwest or South is better positioned to win key states like Minnesota, Ohio and -- you guessed it -- Iowa.

And the number one thing going against Vilsack...

Iowa represents a no-win situation for Vilsack. If he manages to wind up on top in the caucuses, most neutral observers will take it as a matter of course -- two term governor wins his home state, no surprise there. In that event, the focus of the national media coming out of Iowa will likely be on who comes in second (or even third), not on Vilsack. He stands to gain no bump from an Iowa caucus win.

Obama: The Good and The Bad

Here are 2 stories that outline the good and the not so good aspects of a Obama candidacy.

From Political Wire...

Sen. Barack Obama’s (D-IL) "announcement that he might run for president is altering the early dynamics of the 2008 Democratic nominating contest," writes the New York Times. The move has created complications for” Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY) "as she steps up her own preparations and is posing a threat to lesser-known Democrats trying to position themselves as alternatives to Mrs. Clinton."

"Democrats increasingly believe that Mr. Obama has the potential of upending the dynamics of the 2008 contest more than any other Democrat who might run -- short, perhaps, of Al Gore, the former vice president, whom some Democrats are pressing to run."

David Sirota has a long piece outlining where Obama has stood on issues important to Progressives since he has been in the Senate.

For progressives, this situation is perilous indeed. Obama is a candidate who has kept his record deliberately thin, who has risked almost nothing for the bigger movement, and in fact who has sometimes gone out of his way to reinforce dishonest stereotypes about the left. This is a man who has helped launch the Hamilton Project designed to undermine Democrats pushing for fairer trade deals. This is a man who belittled Paul Wellstone as merely a “gadfly.” This is a man who refused to lift a finger for Ned Lamont. Flocking to a candidate like that without demanding that he change only reinforces the damaging concept that our movement is a Seinfeld Movement about nothing.

Sirota later adds...

I sincerely hope that Obama becomes a conviction politician, whether he stays in the Senate or runs for President. I mean that, because our side needs conviction politicians with his skills, and because I don’t want to see our movement be tricked by someone who is not part of the movement. If he becomes a conviction politician, then there is no quandary for progressives, and he would make a great president - one that I would loudly cheer on.

Obama is near the top of my list, but like the rest of candidates there, he does have drawbacks. Obama is living on hype. Unlike, Edwards, Obama doesn't have an issue that he can get behind and say this is what I stand for. It seems to me that Obama has tried to be everyone's friend during his 2 years in the Senate, rather than push for change on the issues that matter most to him. Once he gets into the rough and tumble world of primaries and caucuses, his votes will be dissected and we know some mud will get thrown. At this time, Obama might not be able to live up to the hype.

Vilsack on ABC's This Week

Tom Vilsack was on ABC's This Week this morning. Here is video of the appearence.

2008 Candidates News and Notes

Here are some news about 2008 Presidential Candidates...

Evan Bayh is preparing to take the first step in running for president by forming an exploratory committee . Bayh was on ABC's This Week along with Tom Vilsack. Bayh will be in Des Moines on Monday doing a few events.

No matter how many candidates say they are running, there will only be 4 or 5 serious candidates. Bayh is a similar candidate as Vilsack. Both are DLC corporate candidates from rural states. I only see 1 of the candidates making it into the top 4 or 5. The donors will decide which one has a better shot: a Senator who has some foreign relations experience and is from a Red State, or a Governor without votes that can be used against him and is from a state early in the nominating schedule.

Tom Daschle isn't running, which is good. I hadn't heard any news about Daschle since 2005.

And on the Republican side, Kansas Senator Sam Brownback is going to run. He has a press conference scheduled for Monday and will be in Cedar Rapids on Tuesday. Brownback, who Rolling Stone called God's Senator, will make sure that the issues of outlawing all abortions, permitting prayer in public schools, demolishing the Department of Education, and teaching intelligent design are discussed. These far-right beliefs will distract from the issues that matter to Americans from being discussed in the Republican Primary.

Are conservative Christians hurting the Republican Party in Woodbury County?

There are two letters in the Sioux City Journal that attempt the answer the questions, if conservative Christians hurting the Republican Party in Woodbury County? The first letter is about the former county chair, Steve Salem, who had some pointed words about the party right after the election that led to his resignation. The other letter is from current county chair Kevin Alons.

There are 2 things that stick out in Salem's letter. First, ...

Actually, the issue is not whether conservatives or Christians have caused difficulty for the Woodbury County Republican Party. By and large, Christian conservatives are the backbone of the Republican Party (and I count myself as a member of each group). The problem happens to be a rather small segment that has taken control of the party. These individuals demand that you follow every single tenet of theirs. If you fail to do that, they not only wish to defeat you but will do everything in their power to destroy you.

The Republican Party of Ronald Reagan set itself up as a big tent, open to any and all. It was the Party of ideas and welcomed open and honest debate. The party today, at least locally, wishes to exclude anyone who disagrees with any of its policies. Thus, if you are not pro-life, anti-embryonic stem cell research, or against gay marriage you are not welcome in today’s Woodbury County Republican Party. This exclusionary attitude hardly resembles the teachings of Christ’s love for all humanity.

And this about Nussle's messy divorce...

Along those lines, a “whisper” campaign was lodged against Jim Nussle urging people not to support him because he had been divorced. After getting pressured from these moral absolutists, support from the party statewide was pulled from other candidates because they were either divorced or going through a divorce. This despite the fact that many of these “leaders” are themselves divorced.

To go along with what Salem was saying, during the campaign, I heard a couple of Republicans refer to Culver as a slimeball simply because he was pro-choice.

Alons takes a look at the future of the Republican party by saying...

With the 2006 elections behind us, the question is now asked: what was the reason for the significant Republican losses, and what needs to be changed to see future success as a party? From my perspective, there are two fundamental viewpoints, which are markedly different and require very different responses.

One response is that the Republican Party needs to moderate its views, striving to widen its base through compromise and acceptance of alternative views on a wide range of issues. The issues most often targeted for this type of consideration are the conservative social issues that Christian “value” voters are most passionate about, such as the defense of life, traditional marriage and other pro-family issues. This view holds that these “social” issues are too divisive to be addressed and should be marginalized or dismissed in favor of those issues with only fiscal or secular impact.

The other response is to refocus the party on all of the grassroots values of our party, embodied in our platform, both the fiscal/secular and the thorny “social” issues. While there is room for some interpretation in the results across the country, it appears to me that some of these “social” conservative issues propelled more than a few conservative Democrat candidates to victory. Instead of viewing these issues as partisan and dividing, we need to recognize them as relevant to society and widely held across party lines.

I have never been to Woodbury County, so I don't know what their strategy during the last election was. I do know the divide, distract, and conquer strategy of Rove, DeLay, and Gingrich failed miserably in the last election. I agree with Alons about the need to refocus on the greassroots. However, if Republicans refocus on the grassroots then they might realize that the thorny "social" issues don't matter to people as much as health care, education, and the pocketbook issues.

Loebsack Event in Des Moines on Saturday

Got this email this morning...

We invite you to meet and discuss some of your war and peace concerns with David Loebsack this Saturday, December 2nd from 1:30 to 2:30 at Chet's Fire Station. (This is located at 1041 8th Street one block west of Holiday Inn, 7th and Day Street).

Sorry for the short notice, but we just received confirmation yesterday from Dave's scheduler. This will be a great opportunity to share your ideas with Dave.

This is not a fundraiser, but I wanted you to know and hope you can fit this into your schedule. Dave is a former Cornell College Professor and for many years has been an articulate spokesman for peace and justice issues. He will be an outstanding legislator.

Hope to see you this Saturday.

Chuck Day,
STAR*PAC National Chair

Homework

Here are some good articles that I have found the past few days that I recommend...

Kos of DailyKos has posted some thoughts on the 2008 race. There isn't really a conclusion, but some interesting ideas.

It is always great when Steve King is in the news. Here is a look at Steve King's views on immigration and other wacky stuff he has said.

David Sirota has a story about the new era of populism.

From the Iowa Fiscal Partnership, Iowa needs universal health care coverage. They say forget the bandaids, Iowa needs a totally new health care system that takes the burden off employers.

Will Hillary Skip Iowa? Will Anyone else come?

Political Wire again has a story about Hillary skipping Iowa...

On Fox News last night, the chairman of Iowa's Democratic party said that Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) is not laying the adequate groundwork for a presidenial campaign in the first caucus state and that many are starting to speculate she may not run if Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) enters the race.

Said Iowa Democratic Chair Rob Tully: "She's been quiet and, you know, there's a question that we all hear is that she may not get in this if Barack Obama gets in. I have never seen a reaction other than Bill Clinton in terms of the excitement that people have to meet Barack Obama. Some people just wanted to touch him."

One other possible reason: According to the Quad City Times, former Democratic state party chairman Dave Nagle said he is concerned candidates might eventually choose not to come to Iowa with Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack (D) in the race.

I think other candidates will come if they see the Iowa Caucuses as a level playing field. That is why the new State Democratic Party Chair is so important. If there is any hint of any advantage towards Vilsack the other candidates will be heading to New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada.

Here is story that maybe John Kerry should be more concerned about running for Senate in 2008 and forget about another run for the White House. Amen to that.

Edwards In Iowa Tonight

I decided not to make the trip to Des Moines to see John Edwards because of the threat of bad weather. It turned out that the weather wasn't that bad, but I have a feeling Edwards will be back in Iowa. Here is a writeup from an event Edwards attended over the summer.

I have been thinking about Edwards' chances in 2008 ever since I saw this post at John Deeth. This is probably an unlikely situation, but something to think about. Elizabeth Dole is up for reelection in 2008 and is sitting at just a 52% approval rating. I have read that her seat is one that Democrats might target. Barak Obama, Wes Clark, and Al Gore are all being rumored as possible candidates in 2008 and if they run they might take votes away from an Edwards run. Now, Edwards is near the top of my list of possible candidates in 2008, but it might be better for the Democratic Party if Edwards ran for Senate against Dole.

**Update**
Here's the story from the Des Moines Register on Edwards and the event in West Des Moines.

The Center of What?

David Sirota has a post up called The Center of What? that discusses what exactly centrism is in American Politics. Is Centrism defined by what the Washington insiders say or is it defined by what the majority of Americans think?

Here is part of what Sirota had to say...

That’s really the problem with the term - and with Washington’s definition of it. “Centrism” as defined in the political dialogue today means “being in the middle of elite opinion in Washington, D.C.” But if you plot this “center” on the continuum that is American public opinion, you will find that it is nowhere near the actual center of the country at large. The center of elite Washington opinion is ardently free trade, against national health care, opposed to market regulation, for continuing the Iraq War, and supportive of the flattest tax structure we’ve had in contemporary American history. That center is on the extreme fringe of the center of American public opinion, which is ardently skeptical of free trade, for universal health care, supportive of strong market regulations, insistent that the war end soon, and in favor of making the tax system more progressive.

I have written about this topic many times over the past year (1, 2, 3, 4) and it bears repeating until the Democratic Party learns that it is better to stand up for what you believe in (which is exactly what the majority of Americans believe) than to parrot your opponents beliefs.

Obama 08 News

Political Wire has 3 stories on Barack Obama and him running for president in 2008.

First, Obama is headed to New Hampshire to speak at a state party event...

Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) "will have key Granite State Democrats all to himself December 10 when he appears at the state party's election victory celebration," according to CNN. "The freshman senator was the only potential White House hopeful invited to the event."

Fellow Illinois Senator, Dick Durbin wants Obama to run...

Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) is launching an on-line petition drive to persuade Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) to run for president in 2008, the Chicago Sun Times reports.
Said Durbin: "In all my years in politics, I have only met one other person who connects with people as well as Barack does: former President Bill Clinton. That says a lot about Barack's superior skills as a politician and a leader. I have complete confidence that Barack will be able to unite Americans across our country in support of a new agenda of hope."

And finally, it sounds like Hillary is scared of a possible Obama candadicy...

According to Insight, Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) "believes her biggest obstacle to winning the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination in 2008 could be" Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL).

"Sources close to Ms. Clinton said she has been concerned that Mr. Obama could outdo the New York senator in getting support from the minority and liberal base of the Democratic Party. They said Ms. Clinton and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, have been discussing a strategy on how to deal with Mr. Obama and whether he could be persuaded to join a Clinton ticket."

Obama is "expected to decide on a presidential campaign in December."

**Update**
There is a Draft Obama site that just recenly launched. I don't think he will need much pushing to get into the race.