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Kos says that if Obama runs, he will win. I am not so sure about that, but here is his thinking...
I agree that Iowa is a race between Vilsack, Edwards, and Obama. Bayh will think he can get into that group, but will have a hard time differentiating himself from Vilsack (same thing can be said about Richardson). Bayh will have a hard time breaking single digits.Iowa is right next door to Obama's Illinois, and while Vilsack will win it (getting no boost out of it), the race for second-place will determine the "true" winner. Hillary, for now, appears to be bypassing Iowa. So the early battle would appear to be between Edwards and Obama. A 2-3 finish for these guys, in any order, leaves them in good shape moving forward.
Nevada will be a battle between Edwards and his union allies, and Richardson and his southwestern and Latino base. New Hampshire will be fertile territory for Hillary and maybe Kerry (they hate Richardson because he pushed to insert Nevada into the calendar ahead of New Hampshire). And then South Carolina. With Iowa out of the big picture thanks to Vilsack, and New Hampshire diluted by Nevada, South Carolina may well decide our nominee in 2008. Richardson thinks he can win the state (I'm not sure how), and he, Edwards and Clark will stake their entire bids on the state. But given the state's large African American population, along with Obama's popularity with female voters (yeah, they love him), and it's tough to see how the rest, splitting the dwindling white male vote, can overcome those hurdles.
There's one thing that could put a skid on Obama's fast rise -- an Al Gore entrance into the race. Other than that, I don't see a way anyone stops him.
As for Obama, I feel that I would rather see him stay on the sidelines. The primary process is a difficult one where a lot of mud is tossed around. Democrats would be better off if Obama did not run and then named him as the VP candidate. You get the rock star boost, Obama wouldn't get dirtied up, and then he would be ready to run for President in 2016, when he is 55. With all of that said, Obama is still near the top of my list.
1 comment:
I agree with Kos that if Obama runs, he's the favorite to win. I've read both his books, and the more I learn about the guy, the more attractive I find him. My guess is that most voters will have the same experience -- no matter their initial worries about his limited experience in the Senate and his exotic background.
I don't agree that Vilsack is a sure thing to win the caucuses. Obama could well sweep.
But if he doesn't run, I don't think it would make sense for the nominee to choose him for veep. Veeps should be chosen to get you a swing state. If Kerry had chosen Bob Graham last time, he'd be president now. Illinois is deep blue, so it would be wise for a candidate to look elsewhere.
And as for age, Clinton was 46 when he was elected in '92. Obama will be 47 in '08.
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