Candidates Speeches at DNC Winter Meetings

This morning I caught some of the DNC winter meetings on CSPAN. I was able to see Barack Obama, Wesley Clark, and John Edwards speak. Hillary Clinton, Dennis Kucinich, and Chris Dodd also spoke today. Joe Biden, Bill Richardson, and Tom Vilsack are scheduled to speak on Saturday.

Obama's speech was good and got a good response. Clark's speech was dull and boring. Clark basically introduced himself when the audience already knew who he was. He had the chance to connect wtih the people on national security and failed to do so. Instead people left knowing that Wesley Clark has been in the military. John Edwards gave a great speech. He told stories that connected with the people, recieved standing ovations, and called on the audience to act. Of the three speeches I saw, Edwards, by far, did the best.

Here is part of his speech...

Obama To Announce This Week

From Political Wire...

Word from those who work for Sen. Barack Obama is that he will take the first step toward the U.S. Presidency and file the papers with the Federal Election Commission this week," WMAQ-TV reports.

"The campaign will need offices in the key states of New Hampshire and Iowa -- but it will be headquartered right here in Chicago. Word is that Obama will be on one of those campaign trips in Iowa by the end of the week."

Over the weekend, we reported an announcement could come on the Oprah Winfrey Show on Wednesday.

I read somewhere else that Obama will be in Iowa on Frday. I am lucky enough to only be working a half day on Friday, so I am really hoping that I can attend the event. I will post more information when I get it.

**Update**
Obama is forming an exploratory committee. Here is a video of Obama discussing this move.

Video of Obama at Rally in Iowa City

Last night, I came across video from Barak Obama's speech at a rally for Dave Loebsack and Chet Culver in Iowa City the weekend before the election. I wish there would have been some shots of the crowd in the video because some reports said 5,000 people attended the event on the Ped Mall. The video isn't the best quality, but you can tell that Obama is a great speaker and has a good message. Thanks to Iowa for Obama for the video.

The speech is in 3 parts...

Draft Obama Ad to Air in Des Moines

From the Gazette Online...

DES MOINES, IA - A television commercial aimed at convincing Illinois Sen. Barack Obama to seek the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination will have a brief and limited run in Iowa on New Year's Day, according to the volunteer-based DraftObama.org group.

Kris Schultz, a spokeswoman for the grassroots movement of 16,000 volunteers pushing an Obama presidential run, said her group made a "modest ad buy" to air the 60-second "Believe Again" spot on major network affiliates in the Des Moines market only next Monday morning.

DraftObama.org is targeting its effort in Iowa because of its lead-off position in the 2008 presidential selection process, she said. But, because the group is fully comprised of volunteers, it could not afford to take the message to the Eastern Iowa media market at this time, she added.

"We hope to continue to find ways to expand our message," added Schultz, who noted the goal of purchasing media time in Iowa is to send a hopeful message to Iowa caucus-goers.

"Putting the ad on TV in Iowa on New Year's Day is our humble way of asking potential Iowa caucus-goers to encourage Senator Obama to run for president," said Ben Stanfield, DraftObama.org founder. "We're so excited to be sharing the nation's first 2008 campaign ad with the nation's first caucus state."

Here's the ad on YouTube...



The ad isn't bad. It does a good job introducing what Obama stands for. If anything it is a little long.

Obama: Escalation is not the Answer

Since I don't want today to be all Edwards, here is part of an email from Barak Obama called Escalation is not the Answer. Obama, who opposed the war in 2002, says...

Now we are faced with a quagmire to which there are no good answers. But the one that makes very little sense is to put tens of thousands more young Americans in harm's way without changing a strategy that has failed by almost every imaginable account.

In escalating this war with a so-called "surge" of troops, the President would be overriding the expressed concerns of Generals on the ground, Secretary Powell, the bipartisan Iraq Study Group and the American people. Colin Powell has said that placing more troops in the crossfire of a civil war simply will not work. General John Abizaid, our top commander in the Middle East, said just last month that, "I believe that more American forces prevent the Iraqis from doing more, from taking more responsibility for their own future." Even the Joint Chiefs of Staff have expressed concern, saying that a surge in troop levels "could lead to more attacks by al-Qaeda" and "provide more targets for Sunni insurgents." Once again, the President is defying good counsel and common sense.

Good Bayh Evan

Evan Bayh announced this morning that he is not running for President in 2008. Hotline On Call had this interesting analysis on Bayh's decision...

Bayh's most recent trip to NH coincided with Barack Obama's first visit to the state. One wonders if the sudden rise of Obama spooked Bayh. The coverage of the two trips was, well, incomparable. A few months ago in Iowa, Mark Warner shared the stage with Obama at the Harkin Steak Fry. It was seen by some as a real eye-opener for Warner, who made the decision not to run a few weeks later.

Bayh said that there were "too many goliaths" in the race to overcome. Obama would definitely be one of those goliaths.

Out of the early contests, Iowa was probably his best chance. Bayh's hope was that he could come to Iowa as a midwesterner with a lot of experience and do well. When Tom Vilsack announced he was running that made Bayh's chances in Iowa slim. Bayh and Vilsack have simlar political stances, both once working as head of the DLC. Bayh had greater experience than Vilsack, but that wouldn't be enough to overtake the home field advantage that Vilsack has.

Bayh worked hard at building a base of support here in Iowa. He had 25 campaign workers from Camp Bayh in the state leading up to the 2006 elections. However, he lacked the ground game that John Edwards still has after the 2004 election.

In the end, Bayh realized he couldn't out muscle Edwards, out-centrist the hometown boy Vilsack, or outshine Obama.

Obama on Monday Night Football Tonight

From Political Insider, via USA Today...

According to USA Today, Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) will do nothing to discourage speculation he'll take on Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) as he appears in ESPN's Monday Night Football opening segment tonight to talk about "a contest between two very different philosophies" that is also "a contest about the future." Supposedly, he'll then acknowledge questions about "whether the new guy has enough experience."

Then, he says, he'll "put all the doubts to rest. After a lot of thought and a good deal of soul-searching, I'd like to announce to all of America that I'm ready... for the Chicago Bears to go all the way!"

Man, Obama sure is loving all the hype and is doing everything he can to exploit it. It makes you wonder if he is peaking too soon.

I want to know why run for President when you are are already the rock star of the Democratic party?

**Update**
Here is the video from YouTube...

Is Obama a Sure Winner?

Kos says that if Obama runs, he will win. I am not so sure about that, but here is his thinking...

Iowa is right next door to Obama's Illinois, and while Vilsack will win it (getting no boost out of it), the race for second-place will determine the "true" winner. Hillary, for now, appears to be bypassing Iowa. So the early battle would appear to be between Edwards and Obama. A 2-3 finish for these guys, in any order, leaves them in good shape moving forward.

Nevada will be a battle between Edwards and his union allies, and Richardson and his southwestern and Latino base. New Hampshire will be fertile territory for Hillary and maybe Kerry (they hate Richardson because he pushed to insert Nevada into the calendar ahead of New Hampshire). And then South Carolina. With Iowa out of the big picture thanks to Vilsack, and New Hampshire diluted by Nevada, South Carolina may well decide our nominee in 2008. Richardson thinks he can win the state (I'm not sure how), and he, Edwards and Clark will stake their entire bids on the state. But given the state's large African American population, along with Obama's popularity with female voters (yeah, they love him), and it's tough to see how the rest, splitting the dwindling white male vote, can overcome those hurdles.

There's one thing that could put a skid on Obama's fast rise -- an Al Gore entrance into the race. Other than that, I don't see a way anyone stops him.

I agree that Iowa is a race between Vilsack, Edwards, and Obama. Bayh will think he can get into that group, but will have a hard time differentiating himself from Vilsack (same thing can be said about Richardson). Bayh will have a hard time breaking single digits.

As for Obama, I feel that I would rather see him stay on the sidelines. The primary process is a difficult one where a lot of mud is tossed around. Democrats would be better off if Obama did not run and then named him as the VP candidate. You get the rock star boost, Obama wouldn't get dirtied up, and then he would be ready to run for President in 2016, when he is 55. With all of that said, Obama is still near the top of my list.

Obama: The Good and The Bad

Here are 2 stories that outline the good and the not so good aspects of a Obama candidacy.

From Political Wire...

Sen. Barack Obama’s (D-IL) "announcement that he might run for president is altering the early dynamics of the 2008 Democratic nominating contest," writes the New York Times. The move has created complications for” Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY) "as she steps up her own preparations and is posing a threat to lesser-known Democrats trying to position themselves as alternatives to Mrs. Clinton."

"Democrats increasingly believe that Mr. Obama has the potential of upending the dynamics of the 2008 contest more than any other Democrat who might run -- short, perhaps, of Al Gore, the former vice president, whom some Democrats are pressing to run."

David Sirota has a long piece outlining where Obama has stood on issues important to Progressives since he has been in the Senate.

For progressives, this situation is perilous indeed. Obama is a candidate who has kept his record deliberately thin, who has risked almost nothing for the bigger movement, and in fact who has sometimes gone out of his way to reinforce dishonest stereotypes about the left. This is a man who has helped launch the Hamilton Project designed to undermine Democrats pushing for fairer trade deals. This is a man who belittled Paul Wellstone as merely a “gadfly.” This is a man who refused to lift a finger for Ned Lamont. Flocking to a candidate like that without demanding that he change only reinforces the damaging concept that our movement is a Seinfeld Movement about nothing.

Sirota later adds...

I sincerely hope that Obama becomes a conviction politician, whether he stays in the Senate or runs for President. I mean that, because our side needs conviction politicians with his skills, and because I don’t want to see our movement be tricked by someone who is not part of the movement. If he becomes a conviction politician, then there is no quandary for progressives, and he would make a great president - one that I would loudly cheer on.

Obama is near the top of my list, but like the rest of candidates there, he does have drawbacks. Obama is living on hype. Unlike, Edwards, Obama doesn't have an issue that he can get behind and say this is what I stand for. It seems to me that Obama has tried to be everyone's friend during his 2 years in the Senate, rather than push for change on the issues that matter most to him. Once he gets into the rough and tumble world of primaries and caucuses, his votes will be dissected and we know some mud will get thrown. At this time, Obama might not be able to live up to the hype.

Obama Coming to Iowa City on Sunday

I missed Obama at the Harkin Steak Fry, but hopefully I can make it to Iowa City for this event on Sunday. From the Iowa City Press Citizen...

Illinois Sen. Barack Obama will appear Sunday night on the pedestrian mall in downtown Iowa City.

The Democrat, a freshman senator and a possible presidential candidate in 2008, will headline a rally for Democratic candidates at 8 p.m.

Sen. Tom Harkin, D-Iowa, Gov. Tom Vilsack and first lady Christie Vilsack, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Chet Culver, Democratic Congressional candidate Dave Loebsack and other state candidates are expected to speak at the event, which is open to the public and free of charge.

Obama to speak at Harkin Steak Fry

From the Des Moines Register...

Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin announced today that Illinois Sen. Barack Obama would be the guest at his annual fund-raiser in Indianola in September.

Obama, an Illinois Democrat, will headline Harkin’s annual steak-fry scheduled for Sept. 17 at the Warren County Fairgrounds, the Iowa Democrat announced.

It would be Obama’s first trip since his election in 2004 to Iowa, where the 2008 Democratic Party precinct caucuses are expected to launch the next presidential nominating cycle.