Good Bayh Evan

Evan Bayh announced this morning that he is not running for President in 2008. Hotline On Call had this interesting analysis on Bayh's decision...

Bayh's most recent trip to NH coincided with Barack Obama's first visit to the state. One wonders if the sudden rise of Obama spooked Bayh. The coverage of the two trips was, well, incomparable. A few months ago in Iowa, Mark Warner shared the stage with Obama at the Harkin Steak Fry. It was seen by some as a real eye-opener for Warner, who made the decision not to run a few weeks later.

Bayh said that there were "too many goliaths" in the race to overcome. Obama would definitely be one of those goliaths.

Out of the early contests, Iowa was probably his best chance. Bayh's hope was that he could come to Iowa as a midwesterner with a lot of experience and do well. When Tom Vilsack announced he was running that made Bayh's chances in Iowa slim. Bayh and Vilsack have simlar political stances, both once working as head of the DLC. Bayh had greater experience than Vilsack, but that wouldn't be enough to overtake the home field advantage that Vilsack has.

Bayh worked hard at building a base of support here in Iowa. He had 25 campaign workers from Camp Bayh in the state leading up to the 2006 elections. However, he lacked the ground game that John Edwards still has after the 2004 election.

In the end, Bayh realized he couldn't out muscle Edwards, out-centrist the hometown boy Vilsack, or outshine Obama.