Why 60 Seats in the Senate Didn't Matter

There much to do about Democrats winning 60 seats in the US Senate this past election (it's looking like they will have 59 seats once Al Franken is declared the winner in Minnesota). However, 60 seats was more a milestone and would have not really mattered much because of a group of conservative Democrats that vote against the party.

I am not a fan of Joe Liberman at all. Yet, there are at least 6 Democratic Senators that vote with the Democratic Caucus less than Lieberman. Lieberman voted with the Democratic Caucus 81% of the time. These Senators voted with the Democratic caucus less than Lieberman...

• Evan Bayh of Indiana votes with Democrats 65% of the time
• Mary Landrieu of Louisiana votes with Democrats 69% of the time
• Ben Nelson of Nebraska votes wtih Democrats 72% of the time
• Mark Pryor of Arkansas votes wtih Democrats 79% of the time
• Tim Johnson of South Dakota votes with Democrats 80% of the time
• Tom Carper of Delaware votes with Democrats 80% of the time

Claire McCaskill of Missouri and Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas voted with the Democratic Caucus the same percentage of time as Lieberman at 81%.

It always seemed that Republicans could strong arm members of their own party into voting with the Republican Caucus, but this is not the case with Democrats. There are questions of party unity on key Democratic legislation like the Employee Free Choice Act, where Democrat (?) Blanche Lincoln is not sure if she will support it.

This just shows that electing better Democrats is just as important as electing more Democrats.

With Friends Like These, Who Needs Enemies?

Evan Bayh is organizing a Blue Dog caucus in the Senate.

Matthew Yglesias explains further...

With Republicans out of power, the GOP can’t really block progressive change in exchange for large sums of special interest money. That creates an important market niche for Democrats willing to do the work. It was a good racket for the House Blue Dogs in 2007-2008 and there’s no reason it couldn’t work for Senate analogues over the next couple of years.

Matt Stoller has a list of Conservative Democrats that might join a Blue Dog caucus that include Sens. Mark Pryor (Ark.), Blanche Lincoln (Ark.), Mary Landrieu (La.), Ben Nelson (Neb.), Jim Webb (Va.), and Sen.-elect Mark Warner (Va.).

Stoller goes on to explain that this just shows that the 60 vote threshold meant nothing...

This shows that the 60 vote threshold argument was nonsense, power is concentrated in the hands of conservative Democrats and a few Republicans, and that's how these guys wanted it.

A perfect example that electing better Democrats is just as important as electing more Democrats.

Predicting Biden

Barack Obama is supposed to announce his VP candidate this evening or tomorrow morning by text message to supporters. There will be an event in Springfield, Illinois tomorrow afternoon with Obama and the Vice President candidate.

I am predicting that the choice will be Joe Biden. Biden is known to talk a lot and, except for a comment midweek that he's not the guy, he has been pretty quiet the past couple weeks. Biden is coming off a trip to Georgia where he talked to leaders in the region about the conflict with Russia. Biden best quality in my opinion is that he isn't afraid to throw elbows and go on the attack.

Bayh and Kaine's names have been put out there before Obama made campaign stops in their respective states and the buzz wasn't always positive. I think that was basically a test run and the campaign has decided against those two. Another reason that going against Kaine is that Obama just spent two days campaigning in Virginia, a key battleground state, so it wouldn't make sense to announce your naming the Governor of Virginia VP at an event in another state.

I wouldn't be surprised if Hillary Clinton gets the nod. This diary at Open Left makes the case that Obama will name Hillary Clinton that makes a lot of sense.

If, in June, Clinton told you she should be your VP and you were seriously considering it, what would you do? You would probably tell her that the only way it could happen is if you wholeheartedly endorse me, make it clear you have gotten over the joint ticket idea, have those under your influence (such as the "Vote Both" folks) drop all of their efforts on HRC's behalf. You'd say, I can't look weak by picking you, like I was forced by circumstance. It must look like a choice I made that I didn't have to make but I did because I'm such a big person and I care about the country and I care about victory.

There are three candidates that I would most like to see be named vice president. I would love for Obama to name Kathleen Sebelius, who was campaigning in Iowa yesterday, is still a choice, but there hasn't been much buzz about her lately. And Tom Harkin is pushing for Chris Dodd, which I think would be a great choice. Finally, I have been a little surprised that Bill Richardson hasn't been mentioned as much. I think he would bring a lot to the table.

Then it could be a complete dark horse candidate like Tom Daschle, John Kerry, Mark Warner, or Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer (one of the battleground states Obama is visiting after the announcement is Montana).

Now it's just time to sit back with my cell phone in hand and wait for the announcement.

Will Obama Name Bayh VP today?

Barack Obama was in Indiana overnight and has a speech on energy policy today.

Officially, Barack Obama will deliver an energy-policy speech Wednesday to citizens in Elkhart, Ind. But the focus of the political chattering class will be on the man sitting shotgun at the event: Evan Bayh, the Indiana senator thought to be on the likely Democratic presidential nominee's short list of vice-presidential candidates

Rumors over the weekend are that Obama will be naming Bayh his vice president on this trip. Adding fuel to the fire, ObamaBayh08.com directs you to the DNC website.

Bayh, of course, is denying all the VP talk.

Of all the candidates that have been mentioned as possible vice president candidates, Bayh is probably the least appealing. He voted for the war and was a past president of the DLC. I admit that Bayh would be a safe pick. He probably puts Indiana in play and brings some foreign policy experience.

Obama Expected to Announce VP Next Week

Barack Obama is excepted to announce his choice for vice president next week (which he will be announcing via text message).

From MyDD...

John Kerry announced his choice of John Edwards for VP on July 6, 2004, exactly 20 days prior to the first day of the 04 Democratic convention. If Barack Obama follows the same schedule, he will announce his choice on Tuesday, August 5. Certainly one suspects the announcement will come prior to the commencement of the Olympics on Friday, which means the likelihood is that the announcement will come some time in the next 5 days.

In the rest of the post they run down the complete short list (would that be the long short list?). The names that I am hearing pop up the most are Sen. Evan Bayh, Sen. Joe Biden, Gov. Tim Kaine, and Gov. Kathleen Sebelius. Out of those 4, Biden and Sebellius would be by far my top choices. However, I still prefer Bill Richardson and Wesley Clark.

Over the next couple days, I will be posting more about the possible candidates.

In the meantime, DesMoinesDem chimes in with her thoughts over at Bleeding Heartland.

Clinton Endorsement by Bayh is No Surprise

Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) has endorsed Hillary Clinton. Bayh is a former chair of the centrists DLC, just like another Cinton backer, Tom Vilsack. The spin is that the Bayh endorsement shows Hillary can compete in red states.

Bayh is a moderate Democrat whose blessing could help Clinton pick up votes in Republican states.

Vice Presidential Candidates

Political Insider says vice presidential candidates rarely are named from people who have been running for president.

With many presidential candidates being touted as possible vice presidential nominees should they lose their party's primary, such as Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL), New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson (D), Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS), and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R), it is important to note that history is not on their side. Since 1932, of the 28 vice presidential nominees who were running for the office for the first time, just five of them were previously candidates for president that year: John Edwards (D) in 2004, George H.W. Bush (R) in 1980, Lyndon Johnson (D) in 1960, Estes Kefauver (D) in 1956, and John Garner (D) in 1932.

I think Richardson or Obama would be ideal VP candidates. However, If we are looking outside the field of presidential candidates you can look at people that almost ran for president like former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack, former Virginia Governor Mark Warner, Senator Evan Bayh (D-Indiana), and Senator Russ Feingold (D-Wisconsin). Some others could be Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer, Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius, Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano, and first term Senator Jim Webb (D-Virginia).

Good Bayh Evan

Evan Bayh announced this morning that he is not running for President in 2008. Hotline On Call had this interesting analysis on Bayh's decision...

Bayh's most recent trip to NH coincided with Barack Obama's first visit to the state. One wonders if the sudden rise of Obama spooked Bayh. The coverage of the two trips was, well, incomparable. A few months ago in Iowa, Mark Warner shared the stage with Obama at the Harkin Steak Fry. It was seen by some as a real eye-opener for Warner, who made the decision not to run a few weeks later.

Bayh said that there were "too many goliaths" in the race to overcome. Obama would definitely be one of those goliaths.

Out of the early contests, Iowa was probably his best chance. Bayh's hope was that he could come to Iowa as a midwesterner with a lot of experience and do well. When Tom Vilsack announced he was running that made Bayh's chances in Iowa slim. Bayh and Vilsack have simlar political stances, both once working as head of the DLC. Bayh had greater experience than Vilsack, but that wouldn't be enough to overtake the home field advantage that Vilsack has.

Bayh worked hard at building a base of support here in Iowa. He had 25 campaign workers from Camp Bayh in the state leading up to the 2006 elections. However, he lacked the ground game that John Edwards still has after the 2004 election.

In the end, Bayh realized he couldn't out muscle Edwards, out-centrist the hometown boy Vilsack, or outshine Obama.

2008 Candidates News and Notes

Here are some news about 2008 Presidential Candidates...

Evan Bayh is preparing to take the first step in running for president by forming an exploratory committee . Bayh was on ABC's This Week along with Tom Vilsack. Bayh will be in Des Moines on Monday doing a few events.

No matter how many candidates say they are running, there will only be 4 or 5 serious candidates. Bayh is a similar candidate as Vilsack. Both are DLC corporate candidates from rural states. I only see 1 of the candidates making it into the top 4 or 5. The donors will decide which one has a better shot: a Senator who has some foreign relations experience and is from a Red State, or a Governor without votes that can be used against him and is from a state early in the nominating schedule.

Tom Daschle isn't running, which is good. I hadn't heard any news about Daschle since 2005.

And on the Republican side, Kansas Senator Sam Brownback is going to run. He has a press conference scheduled for Monday and will be in Cedar Rapids on Tuesday. Brownback, who Rolling Stone called God's Senator, will make sure that the issues of outlawing all abortions, permitting prayer in public schools, demolishing the Department of Education, and teaching intelligent design are discussed. These far-right beliefs will distract from the issues that matter to Americans from being discussed in the Republican Primary.

Top Political Talent Getting Calls from 08 Hopefuls

I saw this story this morning from Political Insider about Hillary Clinton's so-called money advantage and her chances in Iowa...

There's a lot of buzz in political circles about the NY Times story from earlier this week about Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's money advantage disappearing. The most immediate fallout may come in Iowa where Democratic organizers told me in September that Clinton's only hope of creating a strong campaign apparatus -- absolutely essential in a caucus system -- would be if she were to buy an organization.

John Edwards and Evan Bayh have been working the state aggressively to tie up top talent. The likely addition of Gov. Tom Vilsack and possible entry of Illinois neighbor Sen. Barack Obama could basically shut the door to Clinton for the remaining Iowa operatives. It's looking increasingly likely that Clinton may skip Iowa altogether, turning New Hampshire into a do-or-die state.

The Des Moines Register had a story this morning about Barack Obama courting advisers, such as John Norris, Steve Hildebrand, and Dick Myers, and getting advice for a possible campaign.

The first-term Illinois senator has surrounded himself with advisers rich in experience in Iowa, the leadoff caucus state.

Obama has vaulted to the top tier among prospective candidates for the Democratic Party's nomination, even as the new star in the party says he has not made up his mind about running.

The Iowa connections of Obama's campaign advisers and the senator's behind-the-scenes inquiry into the Iowa caucuses are hardly an announcement that he is running for president. But they show he is visualizing the presidential campaign process, in the event he decides to run.

I wouldn't be disapointed if Clinton skipped Iowa. She has not been to the state at all like other candidates have. If Hillary skips Iowa, it plays right into the story Rolling Stone put out called, "Is Vilsack a Stalking Horse for Hillary?"

Camp Bayh coming to Iowa

From CNN.

"Sen. Evan Bayh (D-Indiana) is flooding Iowa with 25 campaign staffers to help Hawkeye State Democrats in the midterms, a move designed to help build good will with influential caucus-goers should he run for president in 2008. The Indiana Democrat is also sending 15 staffers to New Hampshire as well as three to Nevada and two to South Carolina. The Democratic National Committee is expected to ratify a proposal next week to have Nevada and South Carolina join Iowa and New Hampshire on the early part of the party's presidential nominating calendar. Five staffers will remain in Indiana, where the Democratic senator trained these new campaign operatives at his campaign school 'Camp Bayh.'

Bayh is not the only potential presidential candidate placing people in important early states this fall. Sen. Russ Feingold (D-Wisconsin) has established a similar campaign training program, while Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tennessee) has a paid staffer on the ground in Iowa."

Wow, 25 campaign staffers here in Iowa. I know the Selden Spencer campaign is getting one of them.

Iowa is Getting Invaded

2008 Presidential hopefuls are coming out in full force and visiting Iowa. The Register has the story here and includes information about Vilsack campaigning in his own state on a "Promises Kept" tour.

This weekend will see Evan Bayh (check Nicolai's post about Bayh) and John Edwards here. Mark Warner will be heading here next week and I am once again hearing rumors about Russ Feingold coming to Iowa this month. Joe Biden plans on moving to Iowa for 2 weeks in August. I hope to be able to get out and live blog a couple of the events.

Where does "Moving to the Center" get us?

Yesterday, I read this great article written by David Sirota about the so called centrists in Washington and how they undermining the Democratic party.

If Democrats ever want to regain their status as a majority party, they must move to the center. But that means moving to the real center -- one very different from Washington's definition of the term.

Inside the Beltway, Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (D-Conn.) is called a "centrist" because he still supports President Bush's misguided policies in Iraq; Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. (D-Del.) proved his centrist credentials when he helped gut consumer bankruptcy protections; Sen. Evan Bayh (D-Ind.) is a centrist because he votes for corporate-written, wage-destroying trade deals. And former senator John Breaux (D-La.), now a corporate lobbyist, was labeled the ultimate centrist after working to stop Congress from cracking down on the drug and health industry profiteers who backed his campaigns.

These are just a few examples of how many high-profile Democrats promote the Beltway's idea of centrism -- focused on perpetuating the status quo and abetting the influence of corporate interests that finance political campaigns. But with a centrism like this, so far outside the real center of public opinion, no wonder the Democratic Party keeps losing congressional elections.

On the Iraq war, for instance, polls show a majority of Americans want a timetable for drawing down troops. On economic policy, most Americans support stronger government regulations to protect citizens. On trade, polls show the public is widely suspicious of free-trade deals that have destabilized the middle class. And on health care, surveys show that about two-thirds of those asked want a government-guaranteed universal health-insurance system -- even if it means tax increases.

This article reminded me of what Paul Wellstone wrote in Conscience of a Liberal.

I have never understood arguments for the need for politicians to "move to the center" to get elected. What is the operational definition of "the center"? If what is meant is that you need to have more votes than your opponent than I am all for being in the center. But that is too obvious.

If what is meant by the center is the dominant mood of the populace- the issues that are important issues to Americans and what they hope for- then I would again argue for the need to occupy the center. A politics that is not sensitive to the concerns and circumstances of people's lives, a politics that does not speak to and include people, is an intellectually arrogant politics that deserves to fail.

Sirota ends his peice by saying...

By pursuing similar policies at the national level, and rejecting Washington's faux centrism, Democrats will be able to reclaim a congressional majority.