Predicting Biden

Barack Obama is supposed to announce his VP candidate this evening or tomorrow morning by text message to supporters. There will be an event in Springfield, Illinois tomorrow afternoon with Obama and the Vice President candidate.

I am predicting that the choice will be Joe Biden. Biden is known to talk a lot and, except for a comment midweek that he's not the guy, he has been pretty quiet the past couple weeks. Biden is coming off a trip to Georgia where he talked to leaders in the region about the conflict with Russia. Biden best quality in my opinion is that he isn't afraid to throw elbows and go on the attack.

Bayh and Kaine's names have been put out there before Obama made campaign stops in their respective states and the buzz wasn't always positive. I think that was basically a test run and the campaign has decided against those two. Another reason that going against Kaine is that Obama just spent two days campaigning in Virginia, a key battleground state, so it wouldn't make sense to announce your naming the Governor of Virginia VP at an event in another state.

I wouldn't be surprised if Hillary Clinton gets the nod. This diary at Open Left makes the case that Obama will name Hillary Clinton that makes a lot of sense.

If, in June, Clinton told you she should be your VP and you were seriously considering it, what would you do? You would probably tell her that the only way it could happen is if you wholeheartedly endorse me, make it clear you have gotten over the joint ticket idea, have those under your influence (such as the "Vote Both" folks) drop all of their efforts on HRC's behalf. You'd say, I can't look weak by picking you, like I was forced by circumstance. It must look like a choice I made that I didn't have to make but I did because I'm such a big person and I care about the country and I care about victory.

There are three candidates that I would most like to see be named vice president. I would love for Obama to name Kathleen Sebelius, who was campaigning in Iowa yesterday, is still a choice, but there hasn't been much buzz about her lately. And Tom Harkin is pushing for Chris Dodd, which I think would be a great choice. Finally, I have been a little surprised that Bill Richardson hasn't been mentioned as much. I think he would bring a lot to the table.

Then it could be a complete dark horse candidate like Tom Daschle, John Kerry, Mark Warner, or Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer (one of the battleground states Obama is visiting after the announcement is Montana).

Now it's just time to sit back with my cell phone in hand and wait for the announcement.