Obama up 55% to 39% in new KCCI Poll

A new KCCI poll done by Research 2000 shows Barack Obama with another large lead in Iowa.

The new poll interviewed 600 Iowans on Monday and Tuesday who regularly vote in elections for opinion on the upcoming presidential election.

The latest KCCI poll shows that if the election were held today, 55 percent of those surveyed would vote for Obama, 39 percent for McCain. The poll has a magin of error of 4 percent.

Obama has lead in Iowa by double digits in 4 of the past 5 polls done since the conventions.

However, the McCain campaign is seeing things differently...

"We've seen such a variety of polls. Sometimes we're up. Sometimes we're down. I think the bottom line is this is going to be a very close election," said Dave Roederer, McCain's Iowa campaign state chairman.

I think it is safe to say that no other state, besides Obama's home state of Illinois, knows Obama as as well as Iowa.

The poll shows that Iowans believe Obama is qualified to be president. 65% of Iowans think Obama is qualified to be president compared to 63% for McCain. 55% of Iowans think Joe Biden is qualified, while just 37% think Sarah Palin is qualified.

Obama Ahead by Double Digits in Iowa in 2 New Polls

The Big Ten Battleground State poll released last week that showed Obama and McCain tied at 44.8% in Iowa seems to be an outlier after 2 recent polls show Obama with a double digit lead and above 50% in each poll.

On Friday, Survey USA released a poll showing Obama beating McCain 54% to 43%.

Among women, Obama leads by 20 points; among men, Obama and McCain tie. Among voters younger than Barack Obama, Obama leads by 15. Among voters older than John McCain, Obama leads by 9. Among voters who are in-between the two candidates' ages, Obama leads by 7.

Among white voters -- 95% of Iowa's likely voters -- Obama leads by 8 points. 11% of Republicans cross over to vote for Obama; 8% of Democrats cross over to vote for McCain; Independents break for Obama by 9 points.

John McCain leads among Republicans, conservatives, those who attend church regularly, pro-life voters, those focused on terrorism, among the 16% of likely voters who say they may yet change their mind, and in Southwest Iowa. Obama is slightly ahead in Northwest Iowa and leads by double digits in the northeast and southeast portions of the state.

Today, the Quad City Times released results from a Research 2000 poll that shows Obama ahead 53% to 39% over McCain. The poll found that the selection of Sarah Palin as McCain's VP had little effect in the poll.

McCain’s selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate, which swung the spotlight back to the GOP candidate, didn’t make a large share of voters more likely to support McCain, the Research 2000 survey showed.

Of those polled, 61 percent said the Palin pick had no effect on their decision, and 22 percent said it made them more likely to vote for McCain.

These polls and the Des Moines Register poll released on September 14th, where Obama was winning 52% to 40%, show that Obama is in control in Iowa. McCain's negative campaign isn't working in Iowa because Iowans know who Obama really is after having the chance to meet him leading up to the caucuses.

Des Moines Register Poll Shows Obama up by 12% in Iowa

During the 2006 elections and leading up to the 2008 Iowa Caucuses the Des Moines Register's polls were the most accurate.

Today, the Des Moines Register released a poll that shows Barack Obama leading John McCain 52% to 40%.

Obama leads among independents 49% to 36% and among women 53% to 39%. Obama also holds a 2 to 1 margin among young voters.

The Register adds...

The poll underscores some key advantages Obama has had in Iowa.

He visited dozens of times last year and built a statewide network of volunteers on his way to a decisive victory in Iowa's leadoff nominating caucuses last January.

McCain campaigned in Iowa less often and ran a scaled-down caucus operation, finishing in a close fourth-place in the GOP caucuses before rebounding in the New Hampshire primary.

Democrats also enjoy their largest voter registration edge over Republicans in roughly 20 years -- more than 94,000 out of roughly 2 million voters, according to August statistics from the Iowa Secretary of State.

New Iowa General Election Poll

Rasmussen released a new poll in Iowa for the general election. The poll shows Barack Obama beating John McCain 46% to 42% and John McCain beating Hillary Clinton 51% to 36%.

The wide difference between the two Democrats comes from the margin among voters who are identified as no party...

McCain leads Clinton by a two-to-one margin among unaffiliated voters. However, Obama leads McCain 46% to 37% among those same voters.

New ARG Polls in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina

American Research Group (ARG) has released new polls in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

Here is a summary of the results from Political Wire...

Iowa:

• Among Democrats, Clinton 30%, Edwards 21%, Obama 15%, Richardson 13%
• Among Republicans, Giuliani 22%, Romney 21%, McCain 17%, Thompson 13%

New Hampshire:

• Among Democrats, Obama 31%, Clinton 31%, Edwards 14%, Richardson 7%
• Among Republicans, Giuliani 27%, Romney 26%, Thompson 13%, McCain 10%

South Carolina:

• Among Democrats, Obama 33%, Clinton 29%, Edwards 18%
• Among Republicans, Giuliani 28%, Thompson 27%, McCain 10%, Romney 7%

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In Iowa Clinton falls 2% since June, but moves ahead of Edwards, who fell 8%. Obama gained 2%, but the big mover is Richardson who is up 8%. There was big movement in how people who identified themselves as being no party viewed the candidates. Edwards support among those who identified themselves as no party fell from 39% in June to 8% in July. Clinton's support went from 33% to 18%. Obama's support went up from 11% in June to 21% and Richardson's support went from 3% to 25% among people identified as no party. (Here's analysis of the June's poll.)

The poll numbers in Iowa don't mesh well with other polls in Iowa. ARG is the only poll that has had Clinton polling in the low 30's. However, I think it is worthwhile looking at trends in the ARG polls to see how candidates are moving.

The most interesting news in these polls however is Obama moving into basically a tie with Clinton in New Hampshire and leading in South Carolina. In New Hampshire, Obama was down 34% to 25% in June and now they are tied at 31%. In South Carolina, Obama made an even bigger jump. In June Obama was down 37% to 21% and now he is leading 33% to 29%. Though the media praised Hillary after the CNN/YouTube debate in South Carolina, it seems Democrats in South Carolina were more impressed with Obama.

**Update**
Jonathon Singer of MyDD has analysis of the polls here where he talks about how accurate ARG polling is.

I'm a bit reluctant to put up numbers from American Research Group because they don't jibe so well with other polling (my sense is that they're reaching far too wide of a population, not a relatively narrow primary/caucus population), but for whatever it's worth, here are the latest ARG numbers out of the early nominating states (along with June results and Pollster.com averages prior to these latest polls).

	IA		NH		SC
Candidate	ARG	Pollster	ARG	Pollster	ARG	Pollster
Clinton	30 (32)	23.5	31 (34)	34	29 (37)	41.4
Obama	15 (13)	15.6	31 (25)	22.7	33 (21)	26.1
Edwards	21 (29)	27.5	14 (11)	9.4	18 (22)	14
Richardson	13 (5)	12.5	7 (6)	10.1	2 (1)	2.4

Again, let me stress my general sense that ARG casts too far a net in these polls, that it's quite possible that the numbers for the potentially more narrow population that represents likely caucus-goers and primary voters would be different. Indeed, the ARG numbers don't look exactly like the Pollster.com averages posted above (Iowa, in particular, seems off from the general consensus from other polling outfits).

New Poll Shows it is a Race Between Clinton and Edwards in Iowa

A new poll came out today showing Hillary Clinton and John Edwards way out in front of everyone else in Iowa.

Here are the results from the American Research Group (May's support in parenthesis)...

Clinton 32% (31%)
Edwards 29% (25%)
Obama 13% (11%)
Richardson 5% (8%)
Dodd 2% (2%)
Biden 2% (3%)
Kucinich 1% (4%)
Gravel 1% (1%)
Clark 1% (1%)
Undecided 14% (14%)

At first, I was surprised Hillary was leading with over 30% when other polls show her around 20%. However, if you look at the trends, Hillary has consistently been in the low 30's in this poll, except for May when she had just 23%. In fact Hillary is basically right where she was back in December before her campaign even started (32% to 31%).

Ezra Klein seems to think John Edwards' support is declining, but when you look at the trends in the American Research Group polls, it shows Edwards gaining support. In the past month he increased by 4%. Overall, he has improved from 20% back in December to 29% in June. 9% is the largest increase from any candidate.

If you look at Obama's trends in the American Research Group polls, he peaks at 23% in February right after he announced. He has been on a downward trend since then. I think Obama's support is stronger than the 13% he is polling because the polls is of likely caucus goers. Obama has made a big splash with younger people who would not be included in this poll.

Another interesting thing about this latest poll is looking at the preference by party. Among those who identified themselves as no party, 39% were in favor of Edwards, 31% in favor of Clinton, 11% in favor of Obama, and 3% in favor of Richardson. Edwards' support here only strengthens his campaigns claim that Edwards is in the best position to win independent voters and in red states.

Here's analysis from past ARG polls in May and March .

New Iowa Poll

There is a new Mason-Dixon poll in Iowa that shows Hillary Clinton slightly leading John Edwards 22% to 21%. Obama comes in at 18%, followed by Richardson (6%) and Biden (4%). The most surprising thing with this poll is 27% of the people said they were undecided. In past polls, there has been less undecideds. Bleeding Heartland has more coverage of the Democratic side.

The big news on the Republican side isn't that Mitt Romney leads or that Fred Thompson is in 2nd without even campaigning here yet. The big news is that the assumed national front runner, John McCain is tied for 5th place with Sam Brownback with just 6%. Things aren't going well for the McCain campaign. His fundraising was disapointing in the first quarter, he skips out on his duties in the Senate, he is behind with his fundraising numbers in the second quarter, and now he is tumbling in the polls. I am predicting McCain will drop out of the race by the time the Iowa caucuses roll around.

New Iowa Poll

There is a new Iowa poll out today from the American Research Group.

Here are the results...

Clinton 31%
Edwards 21%
Obama 11%
Richardson 9%
Kucinich 5%
Biden 3%
Dodd 2%
Clark 1%
Gravel 1%
Undecided 16%

A closer look at the trends in this poll from past months, shows Hillary Clinton made an 8 point jump, while Obama made an 8 point drop. I highly doubt that Obama is doing that poorly. Richardson went up from 5% to 8% in from April to May, after being at 1% in all previous polls. Biden support fell from 6% in April to 3% this month.

The results from this poll greatly differ from the Des Moines Register poll released a week ago. In that poll Edwards was on top with 29% with Obama at 23%, Clinton at 21%, Richardson at 10%, and Biden at 3%. I find the totals in this poll for Obama and Clinton to be more an accurate picture of what I am hearing on the ground here in Iowa.

I read somewhere that McCain did well on the Republican side because he polled well with independents. That might be why this poll isn't matching up with what I am hearing on the streets. However, independents can't go to the caucuses (unless they register with a party), so why include them in the polls?