Sunday, May 20, 2007

Latest Des Moines Register Iowa Poll: A Look at the Democrats

The Des Moines Register has a new poll out that shows how well candidates are doing in Iowa. John Edwards continues to lead in Iowa, Obama and Clinton are basically tied for 2nd. The big news is Bill Richardson's jump to 10% in the poll. Richardson has been running TV ads for awhile now and they are playing well. I hope this Richardson motivation to make a greater effort in Iowa. The people I talk to are interested in Richardson, but want more information on on him. Chris Dodd is not catching on, which is a shame. He has taken some strong progressive positions, including supporting the Feingold-Reid bill last week. He is getting out polled by Kucinich and Gravel who haven't even campaigned here.

Here are the results...

John Edwards 29%
Barack Obama 23%
Hillary Clinton 21%
Bill Richardson 10%
Joe Biden 3%
Dennis Kucinich 2%
Mike Gravel 1%
Chris Dodd less than 1%
Undecided 11%

The poll also asks who caucus goers would like to see in the race. 44% said they would like to see Al Gore running, 23% want John Kerry to run again, and 20% wish Wesley Clark would enter the race. This is not the amount of support these non-candidates have, just how many people would like them in the race.

The Des Moines Register's polls were fairly accurate in the 2006 Governor's race and I think the poll results are pretty comparable to the feeling that I get on the ground here.


desmoinesdem said...

I am confused by that question about who people would "like" to see in the race. As a former Kerry precinct captain, I know a whole lot of Kerry supporters, but I don't know of a single one who wishes he were in the race now. I do know a few holdouts for Gore, but it's not anywhere close to 44 percent of Iowa Democrats.

On the Republican side, answers to that question were weird as well. Half of Republicans wish Condi Rice were in the race. But obviously, if she were running, she wouldn't have anywhere close to 50 percent support.

In general, my impression is that Democrats are happy with the quality of our field, and Republicans are quite unhappy with their offerings.

The Real Sporer said...

Its easy to understand, the reserve quarterback is always the most popular player on the team. Americans are particularly dissatisfied in part because of the constant negativism of the Dems and their MRDs and in part due to a terrible commercialism in our culture.

Since our front runners poll well against the Dem front runners I wouldn't read too much into it.

The Real Sporer said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
The Real Sporer said...

I'm not surprised by Richardson at all. He's your best, and by far most qualified candidate.

He's done diplomatic service under at least two administrations, maybe three-'cause I think that 41 used him also. He's been a very good governor.

Plus he's very likeable and funny. Kind of a Mike Huckabee with a better resume.

Plus his commercials are great-the best thus far.

I like the guy, for real, this is not run him 'cause he's weak because I think that he'd wear well also. I'm hoping to get a chance to meet him and get a pic during the campaign.

noneed4thneed said...

I think Democrats are happy with their group of candidates, but Republicans are dissatisfied. That showed in the poll with 3 Republicans gaining more than 40% on the question about what people should run.

John said...

No freakin' WAY there's only 11% of Dems undecided...

desmoinesdem said...

John is absolutely right--my best guess is that 30 to 40 percent of the caucus-going Democrats I talk to are undecided. But every poll is showing a ridiculously low undecided number.

For once I agree with Mr. Sporer in part. Richardson would be a strong general election candidate (assuming whatever issues he supposedly has with women are aired during primary season and turn out not to be a big deal).

Richardson is too conservative for me to support in a primary, but he probably would stomp all over whoever the GOP nominates this time around. I met an uber-Republican in the Des Moines exurbs recently, practically a caricature of a Republican, you could hardly get more Republican than this guy. He told me he would vote for Richardson over Giuliani, even though he's never voted for a Democrat for anything before.

Now, I don't think Giuliani has a snowball's chance in hell, and I don't really think this guy would vote for Richardson even if he were running against Rudy. But if someone like him is even entertaining the option of voting against the Republican front-runner, than 2008 is gonna be bad for the GOP. I don't see this type of guy swooning for a flip-flopping Mormon from Massachusetts either.