New Poll in Iowa

There is a new poll conducted in Iowa out by ARG. This is the first poll that I have seen since Vilsack dropped out of the race.

Clinton 34%
Edwards 33%
Obama 16%
Undecided 10%
Others 7%

Most all of the other polls that I have seen has had Edwards in the lead. It seems that a lot of Vilsack supporters made the jump to Hillary. Obama has moved up much considering all of his visits he has made to the state. I think a lot of Iowans are waiting to hear Obama in a smaller setting and not in front of a crowd of 2,000 - 5,000 people.

**Update**
I knew there was 1 poll that had Hillary leading in Iowa and happened to be done by the same company as this one. That means that Hillary didn't pick up a majority of Vilsack backers, but Edwards did. Thanks to Chris Woods for pointing this out. Here's a story from Political Wire on the poll.

**Update 2**
MyDD has the results of the latest poll and the numbers from the last ARG poll.

Iowa
Clinton: 34 (35)
Edwards: 33 (18)
Obama: 16 (14)
Biden: 2 (2)
Dodd: 1 (1)
Richardson: 1 (1)
Kucinich: 1 (2)
Gravel: 0 (0)
Other / Unsure: 12 (27)

According to the poll, the big movement came from former Vilsack voters moving to Edwards. However, I don't buy that, because it is not supported by any other Iowa poll. The far, far more likely scenario is that Edwards was never down 17 points to Clinton in Iowa, the previous ARG results were inaccurate, and that this poll just moves ARG results into line with other Iowa polls. Then again, if Edwards is tied with Clinton in ARG, maybe he has pulled ahead of Clinton in reality. Also, one does have to wonder if Vilsack's endorsement of Clinton puts Obama at a severe organizational disadvantage in Iowa, since Edwards can use his 2004 structure and now Clinton can use Vilsack's. We will have to wait for other polls to confirm if Obama truly is this far behind in Iowa. Even if he is, he caucuses are still over nine months away, and he has more than enough time to catch up.