Running Up the Score

John Deeth has some excellent analysis about the November election that is even more true after Obama's win in last night's debate...

From here on out this is about running up the score. It's about coattails. It's about the 58th and 59th and 60th Democratic Senators -- and, we hope, the 61st so we can finally consign Joe Lieberman to his own caucus of one. Georgia is in play, and in North Carolina Elizabeth Dole is a goner.

It's about House races on the bubble, like Judy Baker in Missouri 9 and Becky Greenwald in Iowa 4 and dozens -- yes, dozens -- of others. It retrospect, it almost seems like the Republicans saw this collapse coming, and the Palin pick was designed to hold the GOP base vote at x, rather than x minus y (y being a Bob Barr, Chuck Baldwin or Stay At Home protest vote) to hold a few seats.

It's about making this a realigning year that finally kills off the Nixon-Reagan era Republican Southern Strategy and consigns the GOP to a Flags, Fags and Fetuses base from which recovery is impossible and reinvention is necessary. The Republicans won the battles of the 80s and 90s by pulling Democrats to the right and making us fight on their turf, and a big 2008 win followed by a 2012 landslide over a Palin or a Huckabee can do the same. I'd rather spend the 2010s battling a libertarian Republican Party than a theocratic Republican Party.

That One?

Is that John McCain or the Joker?



Howard Fineman said on MSNBC that there was no racial undertone by McCain, but it was just McCain being an old man and compared it to Grandpa yelling at the grandkids. I don't know, but that soundbite is the one that will be most remembered from this election.

McCain showed that he really does dislike Obama after the debate. Here's the post debate handshake or lack of handshake...

Polls Show Decisive Win in Debate by Obama

Polls released following the debate show a decisive win tonight by Barack Obama.

• CNN's poll of debate viewers shows Obama in a landslide: Obama 54%, McCain 30%.
• CBS poll of 400 independent voters show 39% thought Obama won, 35% said it was a draw, and 27% said McCain won.

Hardly the game changer that McCain needed to get back into this race.

2nd Presidential Debate Liveblog

Once again I will be live blogging the 2nd presidential debate on Twitter and then I'll post everything here once the debate is finished.

**Update**

commoniowan: Chris Matthews connects the dots after debate saying McCain stayed away from the character attacks because he doesn't feel comfortable doing it, but he is just fine with his surrogates calling Obama a terrorist.

commoniowan: MSNBC's test group from Pennsylvania showed independents moving more towards Obama during tonight's debate.

commoniowan: The rules sucked in this debate. It prevented the candidates from responding to each and talking about issues. It seemed like a tattlefest.

commoniowan: McCain calls Obama "that one." My friend that was really poor taste. Obama is a colleague of yours in the United States Senate.

commoniowan: I feel like I am watching a rerun of the 1st debate. Obama wants to meet without preconditions, Obama wants diplomacy, etc.

commoniowan: When asked if Russia should be part of the axis of evil? Obama should say the with us or against attitude isn't the way to defeat terrorism.

commoniowan: Didn't McCain say we were going to attack Iran when he sang "Bomb, bomb, bomb, Iran"?

commoniowan: McCain must have misplaced his flag pin once again because he isn't wearing one. Doesn't he loved America?

commoniowan: Sorry Sen. McCain, my friend, if we did what Obama wanted, we would never have invaded Iraq in the first place.

commoniowan: Obama says he doesn't understand everything, like why we invaded a country that had nothing to do with 9/11.

commoniowan: How will the economy affect our peace making ability? McCain says it hurt our ability to have a strong military. Hey, guns don't win peace.

commoniowan: Obama says something is wrong with a country as wealthy as ours with so many people uninsured, people going bankrupt because of health care costs.

commoniowan: Is health care a privilege, a right, or a responsibility? McCain says it is a responsibility. Obama says it is a right.

commoniowan: Obama's doing a great job explaining his health care plan. Now going after McCain's health care tax that would tax benefits as income.

commoniowan: Obama: "I will give tax cuts to 95% of Americans. If you make under $250,000 a year you won't see an increase in taxes."

commoniowan: McCain says he doesn't want to give the wealthy tax cuts.

commoniowan: Obama takes it to McCain about the need to adjust revenue and not give millionaires $700,000 more in tax cuts.

commoniowan: Obama says we must ask ourselves how they can save energy and providing incentives. He talks about national service to help communities.

commoniowan: Asked what we would sacrifice and McCain says we have to sacrifice some government programs, you know like Medicare.

commoniowan: McCain asked about priorities says we can do it all. Then says we spend to much money. What gives? Oh yeah, McCain plans to cut Medicare.

commoniowan: McCain should stop walking around. He looks like he is stumbling all over the place.

commoniowan: McCain is basically saying the bailout isn't enough and we need another bailout to buy bad mortgages. How much does he want to give away?

commoniowan: Obama explains the credit crunch and says that small businesses won't make payroll. He says he asked for action on mortgage crisis in 2006.

commoniowan: McCain fails to answer the question about how the bailout plan helps the average worker. Instead he blames Obama and his cronies in DC.

commoniowan: McCain says it starts with energy independency, cutting taxes for all Americans, and cut spending. He says we must stabilize home values.

commoniowan: On the economy and Obama says that it is the effect of 8 years of Republican economics based on deregulation and helping the wealthy.

commoniowan: With Obama surging in the polls in every battleground state McCain needs a game changer tonight.

Eyeing Grassley's Seat in 2010

This morning I wrote about the Democrat's chances in the US Senate in 2010. That got me thinking about Sen. Grassley, who is up for reelection in 2010. However, he will be 77 at that time and there's a good chance he migh retire.

Iowa Democrats have some very good options to run for his seat in Tom Vilsack and Bruce Braley. Depending on how the State legislature fares over the next 2 years, Mike Gronstal and Pat Murphy could emerge as good candidates for Senate as well.

Iowa Republicans gave Harkin a pass in 2008. With Culver running for reelection in 2010, as well, Iowa Republicans would need to find 2 solid candidates. Steve King, Christopher Rants, Bill Northey, and Chuck Larson are the leading names today.

It is looking like if Grassley retires in 2010 the seat would a great opportunity for Democrats to pick up.

Democrats Looking Safe in 2010 US Senate Races

It is looking like Democrats will pick anywhere from 6-10 Senate seats this election. Republicans, however, think things are looking much better for them in 2010 though.

From Daily Kos...

Republicans lament 2008, but they profess hope for 2010:

One indication of the Republicans’ mood: They’re already looking past this grim election season.

“2010 looks pretty good for us to pick up three or four or five seats pretty easily,” the McCain official said.

Boy, delusional to the end. As I've written before, the 2010 map looks even better for us, on paper, than this one did earlier this cycle.

First, the Democrats:

Arkansas: Blanche Lincoln
California: Barbara Boxer
Colorado: Ken Salazar
Connecticut: Chris Dodd
Hawaii: Daniel Inouye
Illinois: Barack Obama
Indiana: Evan Bayh
Maryland: Barbara Mikulski
Nevada: Harry Reid
North Dakota: Byron Dorgan
Oregon: Ron Wyden
Vermont: Patrick Leahy
Washington: Patty Murray
Wisconsin: Russ Feingold

There's a strong chance of retirements in Hawaii and Maryland. Maryland would be an easy hold, but Hawaii has a popular Republican governor who could make a race out of it. The GOP may make a stab at Lincoln in Arkansas, but they couldn't even muster up a challenger against freshman incumbent Mark Pryor this year. They have no bench in the state. They'll also go after Murray in Washington, and Feingold in Wisconsin, but if they couldn't get ousted in the far more Republican year of 2004, 2010 shouldn't be much more difficult for them. And given the pathetic state of the Colorado GOP, Ken Salazar should hold on easily.

Kos concludes...

So off the bat, we have 13 potentially competitive GOP-held seats, and few Democratic takeovers. So no, 2010 won't give Republicans 5-6 "easy" pickups. That's ludicrous.

Things will be much different in 2012 and 2016 when we're slated to play HUGE defense (defending our gains from 2006 and this year). Republicans can brag about the gains they'll make those years because chances are they will. But 2010? Heck no. At this pace, we're headed toward a 65-70-seat Democratic majority in the Senate by the end of 2010.

Harnessing the Power of the Creative Economy

With the collapse of the financial market, the creative economy becomes more vital for regions and cities to cultivate.

One of reasons we believe the creative economy/society is different from the industrial and agricultural economies is that it relies on a resource (creativity), that every single human being has. The question is whether our institutions and their leaders can provide mechanisms and devices that support the individual in exercising their creativity productively.

Policies must be put into place that value people over profit and reward work over wealth. This will help unleash the power of the creative economy, empower people, and revitalize local economies.

One thing that needs to be put into place is a national high speed internet policy.

Virtually every other advanced country has explicit proactive national broadband policies. We're the only country that doesn’t. I think the question is whether we have the political will to move beyond largely ideologically fights and bickering to get on with the task, which is to get faster broadband and get it to more places and more people.

A national high speed internet policy would increase productivity, make rural areas competitive in the global economy, and empower innovation.

Stop Spending Like There's No Tomorrow

Here is a great commercial about our national debt from Scott Kleeb, Democratic candidate for Senate in Nebraska.

Mental Health Parity Bill Passes

Popular Progressive has some information on the Wellstone Mental Healh Parity bill that passed in the bailout bill last week.

The Paul Wellstone and Pete Domenici Mental Health Parity and Addiction Equity Act of 2008 is a major step forward to end discrimination in insurance coverage for people with mental illness and substance abuse disorders. The legislation states that insurance plans may not place arbitrary and discriminatory restrictions on mental health and addiction coverage as compared to medical/surgical coverage. Millions of individuals and families have been affected by the inability to access equal coverage for mental health and addiction care.

It's about time. This bill first passed in the Senate in 1996, so it's been 12 long years for it to become law.

Springsteen Performs at Obama Rally

Yesterday, Bruce Springsteen performed at an Obama rally in Philadelphia.

Here is some of what he had to say and video...

I've spent 35 years writing about America, its people, and the meaning of the American Promise. The Promise that was handed down to us, right here in this city from our founding fathers, with one instruction: Do your best to make these things real: opportunity, equality, social and economic justice, a fair shake for all of our citizens, the American idea, as a positive influence, around the world for a more just and peaceful existence. These are the things that give our lives hope, shape, and meaning. They are the ties that bind us together and give us faith in our contract with one another.

I've spent most of my creative life measuring the distance between that American promise and American reality. For many Americans, who are today losing their jobs, their homes, seeing their retirement funds disappear, who have no healthcare, or who have been abandoned in our inner cities, the distance between that promise and that reality has never been greater or more painful.

I believe Senator Obama has taken the measure of that distance in his own life and in his work. I believe he understands, in his heart, the cost of that distance, in blood and suffering, in the lives of everyday Americans. I believe as president, he would work to restore that promise to so many of our fellow citizens who have justifiably lost faith in its meaning. After the disastrous administration of the past 8 years, we need someone to lead us in an American reclamation project. In my job, I travel the world, and occasionally play big stadiums, just like Senator Obama. I've continued to find, wherever I go, America remains a repository of people's hopes, possibilities, and desires, and that despite the terrible erosion to our standing around the world, accomplished by our recent administration, we remain, for many, a house of dreams. One thousand George Bushes and one thousand Dick Cheneys will never be able to tear that house down.

McCain Would Make You Pay Income Tax on Health Care Benefits

Analysis of the Vice Presidential Debate

The best analysis that I read this morning about the debate came from DemFromCT at Daily Kos...

• Joe Biden is the story for me, not Sarah Palin. I was delighted but not surprised with his remarkably strong and empathetic performance. Joe is a strong Democrat, and a proud family man. He's smart, he's experienced, and he can <> be disciplined. If there's a candidate who exceeded realistic expectations, it was Biden who knocked it out of the park and exposed Palin for the attractive, but callow, candidate she really is. His discussion of his injured family was the deal-maker for the audience, a moment Palin handled awkwardly afterwards in her response.
• Sarah Palin's expectations were ridiculously low, set by the punditocracy that, as Jon Stewart might say, is hurting this country. Get a grip, folks. No one cares whether Andrea Mitchell thinks Palin reached her (Mitchell's) expectations. They want to know whether Sarah Palin can help the family pay the mortgage and pay the college tuition bill.
• Two completely separate conversations go on about Sarah Palin. She's lost thoughtful conservatives and independents, and Democrats were never her audience. Social conservatives and wingers like Pat Buchanan may love her, but who cares? Buchanan, I will remind the media, was a fringe candidate who did very poorly when he ran. Palin's audience may love her but they are a small portion of the electorate and they do not count any more. This is not a base election. It will take a loss for the media to get it.

Here's my liveblog from last night in case you missed it.