Showing posts with label 2008 Senate. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2008 Senate. Show all posts

Monday, May 19, 2008

Democrats Could Win Senate Seats in Alaska, Texas, North Carolina, and even Kansas

Democrats need 9 seats to gain a filibuster-proof margin in the Senate and after looking at recent polling it looks possible. Democratic candidates are even polling slightly ahead or within the margin of error in Red States like Alaska, Texas, North Carolina, and Kansas.

In Alaska, two recent polls show Anchorage mayor Mark Begich leading Republican Ted Stevens.

In Texas, two recent polls shows Republian John Cornyn leading Rick Noriega by just 4%.

In North Carolina, two polls released the past few weeks show Republican Elizabeth Dole leading Kay Hagan by only 5%.

In Kansas, Republican Sen. Pat Roberts, whose approval ratings have hovered in the low 50's for the past 2 years, is in a closer race than expected. Former Rep. Jim Slattery has closed to within 12% in a recent poll.

It is worth noting that in 2006 polls had Jim Webb down by as much as 16 points as late as July against Sen. George Allen.

Last Monday, Chris Bowers took a look at the latest polling of Senate races and things are looking really good for Democrats this year.

Likely Democratic Pick-ups

  1. Virginia: Warner (D) 55%--37% Gilmore (R)
  2. New Meixco: Tom Udall (D) 54%--40% Pearce (R)
  3. New Hampshire: Shaheen (D) 51.5%--41.5% Sununu (R-inc)

Current Toss-ups

  1. Colorado: Mark Udall (D) 45.0%--43.5% Schaeffer (R)
  2. Alaska: Stevens (R-inc) 46%--45% Begich (D)

Competitive Seats, Republicans Favored

  1. Oregon: Smith (R-inc) 45%--42% Merkley (D); Smith 47%--41% Novick (D)
  2. North Carolina: Dole (R-inc) 47.7%--44.0% Hagen (D) (see also PPP)
  3. Texas: Cornyn (R-inc) 47.5%--43.5% Noriega (D)
  4. Minnesota: Coleman (R-inc) 51.0%--42.5% Franken (D) (see also Survey USA)
If you added the race in Kansas to the Competitive seats where Republicans favored and the race in Maine where current polls shows Republican Sen. Susan Collins beating Democratic Rep. Tom Allen 52-42, and you have 11 competitive seats.

In 2006, Democrats won 5 of the 6 competitive seats (with only Harld Ford Jr. losing in Tennessee). If Democrats have similar success in 2008, they could earn a majority of 60 Senators and have a filibuster-proof majority.

Saturday, September 15, 2007

A Look at 2008 Senate Races

Kos takes a look at what 2008 Senate Races that Republicans might spend there limited money on.

Assuming Kerrey gets in the race, the highest tier becomes New Hampshire, Virginia, Colorado, and Nebraska.

The next level of the top tier is Minnesota, Maine, and Oregon. Alaska too if popular Anchorage's popular Democratic mayor Begich gets in.

Then there's the states that will become the second tier -- North Carolina, Kentucky, Tennessee, Texas, Idaho, maybe even Kansas.

On the Republican side, they have two real targets -- Louisiana and South Dakota. Louisiana, however, isn't as easy as anything in the Dem's top tier pickup shots, and South Dakota is tricky given Sen. Johnson's health issues (and Herseth Sandlin wouldn't be any easier). They could be stupid and sink millions more into New Jersey again, but alas, they're probably not that stupid. Or, at very least, they won't have the money available to be that stupid. What's left? Montana? Iowa? Arkansas? No way.

It is looking like Democrats should pick up at least 4 or 5 seats in the Senate. I predict Democrats will pick up 7 seats (Virginia, Oregon, New Hampshire, Maine, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Colorado) .

At this point, Harkin is as safe as they come. He has been raising a ton of money and the Republicans have no viable candidate to run.

Monday, January 08, 2007

Nussle to Open Consulting Firm in Cedar Rapids

Many thought that Jim Nussle would be leaving Iowa for good after his defeat in the Governor's last November, but it looks like Nussle is keeping his Iowa ties. Nussle plans to open up a consulting firm in Cedar Rapids. From the Cedar Rapids Gazette...

Former 1st District Rep. Jim Nussle, a Manchester Republican, announced today he is opening a Cedar Rapids-based consulting firm, Navigating Strategies, L.L.C., that will combine his years of experience in the public and private sectors.

Together with long-time associate and former chief of staff, Steve Greiner, originally from Independence, the firm will provide a partnership and expertise in the areas of business, government, politics, communications, and public policy.

Nussle isn't forgetting about DC though...
In addition to headquarters in Cedar Rapids, Navigating Strategies will have an office in the Washington, D.C., area.
With news that Tom Harkin might not be running for Senate in 2008 and Grassley looking at retirement in 2010, Nussle could be eyeing a run for Senate.

Thursday, December 14, 2006

Is Harkin Vulnerable in 2008?

Chuck Todd put out a list of the Top 10 Most Vulnerable Senate Seats in 2008. Iowa's Tom Harkin comes in at #8. Here is what Todd had to say about Harkin...

Iowa (Democrat Tom Harkin): GOP Rep. Steve King sounds like he wants to run, but the ghosts of former Reps. Greg Ganske, Jim Ross Lightfoot, and Tom Tauke are surely giving him pause. Still, some serious Iowa Republican will see all the national press and feel the need to fill the vacuum and take advantage of the potential fundraising boon a presidential contest can provide. The ideal move for incoming NRSC Chair John Ensign (Nev.) would be to buck the trend of recruiting sitting/former House members and convince former GOP Gov. Terry Branstad to come out of retirement.
I really do hope that King runs. That would be an exciting campaign and a sure victory for Harkin. I think it would be a major get if Branstad would run and I think a Harkin/Branstad race would be closer than a Harkin/King race. However, after the populist undertones of the 2006 elections, I think Harkin will be hard to beat with his populist message.

Sunday, November 19, 2006

Some Post Election Homework

Here are some articles about the 2006 election that I found was interesting...

Election 2006: The Worst Show on TV by Matt Taibbi
This is a diary Taibbi wrote on election night while watching the results on cable news. Very funny, insightful, and a little crude. Taibbi discusses how the election coverage has copied ESPN and is all about who is going to win the next big game.

On Lieberman winning...

To me, this ruins the whole evening. I can't see any way to describe any day in which Joe Lieberman wins an election as a good day, but here's the good news: Six years from now, both the Republicans and the Democrats will run serious candidates, and Joe Lieberman will be scrambling for the last eleven percent of Connecticut's half-in-the-grave vote, running on a ticket of "the terrorists support both of my opponents." It'll be worth staying in journalism just for that.
On the 2008 hopefuls...

It's not a coincidence that the early White House hopefuls were all herded on the air the instant the polls closed. Once the last vote is counted, the next story is the next race. All politics has to be contained within the parameters of that who's-winning narrative.

What the Congress actually does, how it actually spends its money, what happens in its committees -- it's all irrelevant, except insofar as that activity bears on the next presidential race. That's why the "experts" on these panels are so unanimous in their belief that the Democrats should lay low for the next two years and not push their subpoena powers. They all think pushing it in Congress would negatively affect the Democrats' White House chances. In other words, it's bad strategy for the next football game, just like Howard Dean's crazy antiwar stance was deemed "too liberal" for the gridiron by the same geniuses a few years ago -- even though history ultimately proved Dean right on that score, for all his other flaws.

Taibbi spent election day using a fake name and volunteering with the Rick Santorum campaign in Pennslyvannia. Taibbi did this, so that he could attend Santorum's Victory/Defeat Party. This is a hilarious look at inside the Rightwing's poster boy defeat. Taibbi provides some good thoughts on the Republican corruption and negative campaigning from both parties...

Beyond the Republican shipwreck, unfortunately, lies an utter vacuum of positive ideas. The Democrats may have been less over-the-top about their negative campaigning, but they still spent more than $72 million on attack ads, only slightly less than the other guys. They had nothing to say except that the Republicans sucked -- which was true, but where does that leave us?

This was the year the national elections devolved into nothing more than a forum for organizing the disgust and revulsion of the population, with both sides firmly entrenched in their own tribal paranoia and ready to disbelieve any unwelcome result the voting machines might spit out, all confidence in the system lost. No one really won -- it felt more like the country decided to pull the plug on itself or burn cigarettes in its arm.

Learning From Lamont by David Sirota
Sirota worked for the Lamont campaign and weighs in with his thoughts on the Lamont-Lieberman race.

I know that some people say that Lamont was a failure, however if you would have told Ned Lamont back in January that he would beat Lieberman in the primary, he would have been pleased with the result. The same can be said about Howard Dean finishing 3rd in Iowa in 2004, Ed Fallon getting 26% of the vote in the primary for Governor. Big Money has such a grasp on the political arena, that someone who challenges that is facing an uphill climb. Each candidate that challenges the status quo, pushes the movement forward, and eventually real progress will be made. You have to look at the big picture of the progressive movement and not at each single race.

Daily Kos takes a look at the 2008 Senate races and it looks like Democrats have a shot at picking up some more seats.

My early prediction will be that Democrats defeat incumbants in Minnesota, Oregon, Colorado New Mexico, and New Hampshire. Republicans will defeat one Democratic incumbant in either New Jersey or Louisiana. Democrats will have a net gain of 4 seats.

Monday, July 10, 2006

2008 just might Democrats' 1994

Kos takes a look at Democrats chances of taking control of the Senate in 2006 and says things look really good in 2008.