Monday, May 19, 2008

Democrats Could Win Senate Seats in Alaska, Texas, North Carolina, and even Kansas

Democrats need 9 seats to gain a filibuster-proof margin in the Senate and after looking at recent polling it looks possible. Democratic candidates are even polling slightly ahead or within the margin of error in Red States like Alaska, Texas, North Carolina, and Kansas.

In Alaska, two recent polls show Anchorage mayor Mark Begich leading Republican Ted Stevens.

In Texas, two recent polls shows Republian John Cornyn leading Rick Noriega by just 4%.

In North Carolina, two polls released the past few weeks show Republican Elizabeth Dole leading Kay Hagan by only 5%.

In Kansas, Republican Sen. Pat Roberts, whose approval ratings have hovered in the low 50's for the past 2 years, is in a closer race than expected. Former Rep. Jim Slattery has closed to within 12% in a recent poll.

It is worth noting that in 2006 polls had Jim Webb down by as much as 16 points as late as July against Sen. George Allen.

Last Monday, Chris Bowers took a look at the latest polling of Senate races and things are looking really good for Democrats this year.

Likely Democratic Pick-ups

  1. Virginia: Warner (D) 55%--37% Gilmore (R)
  2. New Meixco: Tom Udall (D) 54%--40% Pearce (R)
  3. New Hampshire: Shaheen (D) 51.5%--41.5% Sununu (R-inc)

Current Toss-ups

  1. Colorado: Mark Udall (D) 45.0%--43.5% Schaeffer (R)
  2. Alaska: Stevens (R-inc) 46%--45% Begich (D)

Competitive Seats, Republicans Favored

  1. Oregon: Smith (R-inc) 45%--42% Merkley (D); Smith 47%--41% Novick (D)
  2. North Carolina: Dole (R-inc) 47.7%--44.0% Hagen (D) (see also PPP)
  3. Texas: Cornyn (R-inc) 47.5%--43.5% Noriega (D)
  4. Minnesota: Coleman (R-inc) 51.0%--42.5% Franken (D) (see also Survey USA)
If you added the race in Kansas to the Competitive seats where Republicans favored and the race in Maine where current polls shows Republican Sen. Susan Collins beating Democratic Rep. Tom Allen 52-42, and you have 11 competitive seats.

In 2006, Democrats won 5 of the 6 competitive seats (with only Harld Ford Jr. losing in Tennessee). If Democrats have similar success in 2008, they could earn a majority of 60 Senators and have a filibuster-proof majority.

1 comment:

desmoinesdem said...

That settles it--no Evan Bayh on the ticket (if Obama won, the Republican governor of Indiana would get to choose Bayh's replacement).

I'll settle for a four or five seat pickup in the Senate. I think voters in states like TX, AK and NC will revert to the GOP closer to election day.