Saturday, September 15, 2007

A Look at 2008 Senate Races

Kos takes a look at what 2008 Senate Races that Republicans might spend there limited money on.

Assuming Kerrey gets in the race, the highest tier becomes New Hampshire, Virginia, Colorado, and Nebraska.

The next level of the top tier is Minnesota, Maine, and Oregon. Alaska too if popular Anchorage's popular Democratic mayor Begich gets in.

Then there's the states that will become the second tier -- North Carolina, Kentucky, Tennessee, Texas, Idaho, maybe even Kansas.

On the Republican side, they have two real targets -- Louisiana and South Dakota. Louisiana, however, isn't as easy as anything in the Dem's top tier pickup shots, and South Dakota is tricky given Sen. Johnson's health issues (and Herseth Sandlin wouldn't be any easier). They could be stupid and sink millions more into New Jersey again, but alas, they're probably not that stupid. Or, at very least, they won't have the money available to be that stupid. What's left? Montana? Iowa? Arkansas? No way.

It is looking like Democrats should pick up at least 4 or 5 seats in the Senate. I predict Democrats will pick up 7 seats (Virginia, Oregon, New Hampshire, Maine, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Colorado) .

At this point, Harkin is as safe as they come. He has been raising a ton of money and the Republicans have no viable candidate to run.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I am less confident than some about holding SD and LA. I also think there's a decent chance we will lose ME and MN.

A net gain of four or five Senate seats still seems possible (perhaps even likely).

I agree that Harkin is going to cruise for once.