Monday, October 20, 2008

Obama's Going to Win Popular Vote, Still Questions about Electoral College

Yesterday, I heard Chuck Todd on Meet the Press say that Obama is pretty much a lock to win the popular vote.

Marc Ambinder

Whatever happens, Barack Obama is likely to do much better in red states than John Kerry did and will drive up turnout in blue states.

George W. Bush beat John Kerry by more than ten points in 21 states. By my projections, Obama is competitive is six of those states and has the wherewithal to reduce the gap significantly (but probably not win) in two others. For example: Bush won by 20+ points in Indiana. (McCain will win by less than five -- if he wins). Bush won by more than 10 points in North Carolina, Georgia and Texas -- Obama is likely to break 44% in both of them. Obama is likely to break 47% in Missouri -- if he doesn't win.

The upshot is, frankly, that Obama has a better chance to get more total votes than McCain simply by virtue of where is already competitive and how large and distributed his GOTV machine is. Now -- in all likelihood -- if this vote does materialize, it won't somehow skip the battleground states unless they really are in a different dimension.

So the scenarios we're left with:

1. Obama wins the popular vote and the electoral vote.
2. Obama wins the popular vote and McCain wins the electoral vote

No comments: