Iowa Caucuses Round 2

Round 2 of the Iowa Caucuses is taking place today around the state with 99 county convention. Dave Redlawsk explains more...

On caucus night it was estimated that Obama’s 38% of the caucus vote would net him 16 delegates, Clinton’s 29% would net her 15, and Edwards would receive 14 from his 30% caucus support. And these numbers are already included in the counts that currently show Clinton and Obama separated by fewer than 100 delegates.

But here’s the rub. Iowa Democrats will not actually elect any national delegates until our Congressional District Conventions on April 26. At that time 29 of the delegates will be elected, with the remaining 16 elected at the State Convention in June. And those delegates will be elected in proportion to the support each candidate receives at those conventions. How will we know how much support they have? That’s where the county conventions come in.

County Convention Delegates elected at the caucus were elected in support of a candidate (or uncommitted). At the county convention, just like at the caucuses, there will be a “re-alignment” period, where delegates can change their allegiance. Once that process is done, we will count the supporters, and any candidate with less than 15% support at the county convention will be declared non-viable, with those delegates needing to move to a different candidate. When the alignment is over, the viable candidate groups will elect their share of district and state convention delegates.

So who cares? This seems like it is just another part of Iowa’s arcane process, and the battle has moved well beyond us. Normally that would be true, but across Iowa some 30% of all county convention delegates are John Edwards supporters (more than Clinton has by a handful), and those folks may have to make a choice. The choice they make may determine whether Clinton or Obama comes out of Iowa with the bulk of our national delegates – either one could conceivably pick up all 14 of Edwards’ potential delegates. Normally that wouldn’t matter much, but this time around every delegate may make a difference.

Check back later, as I will be posting throughout the day from my county convention.