Sunday, November 18, 2007

It's a Three-Way Race in Iowa, Even if the Media Doesn't Want it to Be

I watched Iowa Press on IPTV this morning and was surprised about how easy the talking heads, David Yepsen, Mike Glover, O Kay Henderson, and Jeneane Beck, fell for the line the mainstream media is trying to peddle, that it is a race between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

However, when discussing these campaigns the talking heads stressed the importance for Clinton to get woman out to the caucuses and for Obama to get young people out to the caucuses and questioned if these campaigns will be able accomplish that. Yepsen added that Clinton's campaign has been sloppy the past few weeks.

The talking heads then blew off John Edwards' chances to win the Iowa Caucuses. They all said Edwards sounds too angry, is too wishy-washy on the issues, and Yepsen even said that Richardson has a shot pass Edwards for 3rd place. None of the talking heads even gave Edwards a chance to be in the top 2.

I agree with Iowa Independent's Chase Martyn, who ranked John Edwards first in his Democratic Power Rankings.

Edwards started about a year ago with the best organization in Iowa, and most of the foundation he built here is still in place. Although concerns persist that his sharpening rhetoric may be alienating a few of his earliest supporters, his solid performance at the Jefferson Jackson dinner, his endorsement from Caucus 4 Priorities (and the potential 10,000 caucus-goers it could bring him), and his ongoing commitment to retail politicking keep him in the top spot -- for now.
A Zogby poll earlier this month, showed Edwards wins the most support when you calculate people's second choices. Edwards has spent the least amount of money on ads in Iowa. Jerome Armstrong from MyDD points out...
On the Democratic side, for every 1 ad that Edwards has run, Obama has ran 9, and Clinton has ran 5, and yet, when you look at who regularly attends the caucuses, John Edwards has the lead; and even among those polled is right there in the mix. I think given Obama's huge spend at this date, he's probably reached his ceiling of support in the state. The other candidate thats already blown his wad in Iowa is Richardson, who got a bump off of it, but hasn't been able to keep growing his numbers. And it looks like, if Biden can get the money, that he's going to see some upward movement. And if I were to guess at whose expense a Biden bump would be, it'd be Clinton & Richardson I'd choose.
The point Yepsen, Glover, Henderson, and Beck missed is that Clinton and Obama's support is not as strong as the polls in Iowa show and that Edwards' poll number are more firm.

Now, I am not saying that John Edwards has Iowa locked up, but that it is a three way race in Iowa, even if the media wants to make battle between Clinton and Obama.


Danielle in Iowa said...

Amen! There was even another poll last week that had all three statistically tied! As an Edwards supporter, I am obviously a bit biased, but if you looked at who the pundits were talking about four years ago at this time, it was most definitely not John Kerry...

Mark said...

I simply don't trust Hillary. I am happy to vote for a woman, and I would be happy to vote for an african american, but I need to trust the one I vote for. I don't trust Hillary.