A Look at My Election Predictions

My first ever political predictions came out pretty well. I was right on the mark in the Governor, 1st District, 2nd District.

Prediction: Governor - Culver 56% - Nussle 44%
Actual Results: Culver 54% - Nussle 44%

I didn't take into account the Green and Libertarian Party candidates that got 2% of the vote from Culver. I knew Nussle would have a hard time cracking 45% and he did. I think I did pretty well on this one.

Prediction: Sec. of Agriculture - O'Brien 52% - Northey 48%
Actual Results: Northey 51% - O'Brien 49%: I knew it would be close. Northey came out on top.

Prediction: Sec. of State - Mauro 59% - Hanusa 41%
Actual Results: Mauro 54% - Hanusa 46% I am really surprised this race was this close considering that Hanusa doesn't live in Iowa, entered the race late, and was barely seen on the campaign trail.

Prediction: Iowa House - 51 Democrats, 49 Republicans
Actual Results: Talk about a wave. Democrats will now hold 54 seats. I knew the Democrats were going to win in the State Senate and thought they could squeek out a majority in the House.

Prediction: Iowa Senate - 27 Democrats, 23 Republicans
Actual Results: 30 Democrats, 20 Republicans Again, the Democrats pick up 3 more seats than I predicted.

Prediction: 1st District - Braley 56% - Whalen 44%
Actual Results: Braley 55% - Whalen 43%:
Again, I forgot to take into account the other parties in the race. I can't believe I forgot about the Pirate James Hill.

Prediction: 2nd District - Loebsack 51% - Leach 49%
Actual Results: Loebsack 51% - Leach 49%
I knew it would be close and was sweating the results late into the night. Big turnout in Johnson County pushed Loebsack over the goal line.

Prediction: 3rd District - Boswell 58% - Lamberti 42%
Actual Results: Boswell 52% - Lamberti 46%
If you consider that Democrats across the nation got a couple points bounce, then Boswell barely scrapped by.

Prediction: 4th District - Latham 53% - Spencer 47%
Actual Results: Latham 57% - Spencer 43%
I was really hoping that Spencer would break 45%, so that the race would be more of a target in 2008.

Prediction: 5th District - King 54% - Schulte 38% - Nielson 8%
Actual Results: King 58% - Schulte 36% - Nielson 5%
Like Kyle, I was surprised by Nielson's low results. I almost predicted that Nielson would get in the 10-15% range. Glad I didn't. Shulte got 2% more than she did in 2004.

Prediction: US Senate - Republicans 50 - Democrats 49 - Lieberman 1
(Democrats pick up seats in Ohio, Pennslyvannia, Rhode Island, Missouri, and Virginia)

Actual Results: Democrats 50 - Republicans 49 - Lieberman 1
It was really hard for me to not pick Tester in Montana because I thought he would win until I saw the polls tightening in the last couple days. I didn't think the Democrats could pull out wins in Montana, Missouri, and Virginia and they did.

Prediction: US House - Democrats pick up 36 seats
Actual Results: Democrats pick up 29 seats with 10 still undecided
My prediction was a little high. The chance of Democrats of winning 7 of the 10 undecided are slim since Republicans are leading in the majority of those races.