Why Ron Paul Won't Do Well At the Ames Straw Poll

Last month, Republican Strategist Patrick Ruffini predicted Ron Paul would get second place in the Ames Straw Poll. I am here to tell you that Ron Paul won't do well at the Ames Straw Poll based on the fact that before this week Paul has only had 2 visits and spent 3 days in Iowa campaigning. Paul is spending this week campaigning, however it will be too little too late.

To do well in Iowa you need to shake hands, lots of hands. Iowans don't decide on who to support by what they hear on TV and fewer rely on the internet, which is Paul's strength. The strength of internet support in Iowa is especially weak in rural areas, which are largely Republican. Iowans that live in rural counties value the opinions of their local paper and their neighbors and many of these people have never visited a blog. To create buzz with the local paper and with neighbors, a candidate must campaign in these towns and let the people ask them questions.

The number of days Rep. Paul has campaigned dwarfs in comparision to every Republican candidate. As of August 3rd, Tommy Thompson has been in Iowa 60 days, Sam Brownback has been in Iowa 51 days, Tom Tancredo has been in Iowa 47 days, Mitt Romney has been in Iowa 44 days, and Mike Huckabee has been in Iowa 39 days. Even Rudy Giuliani and John McCain, who have been criticized for blowing Iowa off, have been here 16 and 17 days, respectively.

Even though Ron Paul is in Iowa this week, I highly doubt he will be able to sweep them off their feet. The die-hards that will be attending the Ames Straw Poll have had the chance to meet these candidates probably more than once during the past few months. This is why Ron Paul won't do well at the Ames Straw Poll.

Candidate's Cash on Hand

Open Left has the cash on hand numbers of the candidates...

Here are the cash on hand totals I have found so far. These numbers do not reflect campaign debt, and include money raised for the general election.

Democrats
Obama: $34M
Clinton: $33M
Edwards: $12M
Richardson: $7.1M
Dodd: $6.4M
Biden: $2.8M
Kucinich: $221K

Republicans
Giuliani: $18.3M
Romney: $12.1M
Paul: $2.4M
McCain: $2M
Brownback: $460K
Huckabee: $437K
T. Thompson: $122K

If you would have asked me 2 months ago which candidate would be right behind Richardson in money raised, I would have said Joe Biden. However, Chris Dodd has more than twice as much money as Biden does. I wouldn't be surprised if Biden drops out early this fall. he seems to running a campaign focusing on Iraq and with Petreus' report coming out in September, Biden could drop out then.

The surprising number to me is Chris Dodd having $6.4 million on hand. He has already aired TV ads in the state. Last month he opened up campaign offices in the state and has staff on the ground finally. If he continues to have decent fundraising quarters he should be able to have enough money to have a strong organization in Iowa.

I saw Sen. Dodd on CSPAN this evening at a campaign stop at diner in Ottumwa. Dodd gave a passionate speech, joked with the audience, and shook everyone's hands. What showed was that Dodd understands retail politics. Couple this with enough money to have a strong organization in Iowa and Chris Dodd could have a surprise finish in Iowa. If Dodd could pull off a 3rd place finish in Iowa, he might be able to pull out a decent finish in New Hampshire based on being from a nearby state.

However, the problem for Dodd (and Richardson and even Edwards) is having the money to compete in the following states, especially on Super, Duper Tuesday on Feb. 5th. While these lower tiered candidates are trying to win Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, Obama and Clinton will have the money for TV ads and have staff on the ground in Florida, New York, New Jersey, and California. This is where Obama's and Clinton's money will give them a huge advantage.

Tommy Thompson Promotes Discrimination in Debate

I watched about 20 minutes of the Republican debate tonight. There isn't much worth writing about except this comment by former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson.

Asked: “If a private employer finds homosexuality immoral, should he be allowed to fire a gay worker?”

Thompson’s response: “I think that is left to the individual business. I really sincerely believe that that is an issue that business people have got to make their own determination as to whether or not they should be.”

Does Thompson not know anything about our Constitution or the 14th Ammendment? Has he never heard that no state shall deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws?

Cornell Law School defines discrimination as...

Discrimination occurs when the civil rights of an individual are denied or interfered with because of their membership in a particular group or class.

So basically Thompson is running on a campaign that promotes discrimination.