Sunday, October 26, 2008

Daily Kos/Research 2000 Shows Greenwald Down by 5%

In 2006, Latham won by 14% and many expected similar results this election.

However, a Research 2000 did a poll for Daily Kos in Iowa's 4th District. It is the first public poll on this race and it shows the race is tight.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/20-22. Likely voters. MoE ±5% (no trendlines).

Latham (R-inc) 47
Greenwald (D) 42
Despite the purple nature of the district - IA-04 has a PVI of D+0.4, making it one of the few (slightly) Dem-leaning districts in the country represented by a Republican - Democratic candidate Becky Greenwald has been perceived as the ultimate underdog all cycle. She faces a well-entrenched incumbent in Republican Tom Latham, who has raised more than $1.3 million for his reelection bid.
The key to this poll is that Latham is polling below 50% with just over a week before the election. This shows that despite being a 14 year incumbent, Latham isn't well liked and not known throughout the district.

The poll also shows John McCain beating Barack Obama by a similar margin 47% to 42%. I don't believe McCain is doing that well in the district.

This poll has Obama winning among voters under 30 by just a 46% to 43% margin (Greenwald is up 47% to 43%). A Des Moines Register poll done by Selzer and Co. in mid September showed Obama with a 2 to 1 margin among voters under 35. With Iowa State University being in the 4th district, I believe Obama (and Greenwald) will perform much better among voters under 30.

This poll shows that Greenwald can definitely beat Tom Latham. With just 9 days, it's just a matter getting voters to the polls.

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