It's All About Turnout in the General Election

From MSNBC's First Read...

Using the 2004 results as a baseline, we were curious as to which states would swing to Obama if he does raise overall turnout by 20% (approximately another 22 million voters) and wins those new voters by a 60%-40% split. Assuming an even distribution -- which we know is potentially a flaw in this estimate, so back off! -- a 20% turnout increase breaking 60%-40% for Obama would swing four states from red to blue (Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, and Ohio). If Obama wins the new voters by a 65%-35% margin, two more states come over (Colorado and Florida), with another (Virginia) essentially too close too call.

Winning new voters by a 60%-40% split is definitely doable in Iowa if the same trend from the Iowa caucuses holds, where Democrats gained 60,000 registrants and Republicans gained just 7,600. That means it is all about turnout turnout in the general election.

High turnout will surely help Democrats down ballot in state house races and for county seats.