Thursday, March 06, 2008

Looking at the 2008 Electoral Map

Stateline.org takes a look at the 2008 electoral map in an article called Purple State turn a little more Blue. They name 19 states as "Out There" states that could be in play...

Eleven of these states (Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Virginia and West Virginia) voted for President George W. Bush in 2004. Eight (Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Oregon, Washington and Wisconsin) voted for U.S. Sen. John Kerry (D). This analysis divides the 19 states into five categories – Likely Democratic, Lean Democratic, Toss-Up, Lean Republican, Likely Republican – based on polling data and discussions with roughly 40 state-based political experts.
Here are the states that Obama would likely win...
Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes): Lean Democratic
Maine (4 electoral votes*): Lean Democratic
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes): Lean Democratic
Michigan (17 electoral votes): Lean Democratic
Minnesota (10 electoral votes): Lean Democratic
Oregon (7 electoral votes): LeanDemocratic
New Hampshire (4 electoral votes): Likely Democratic
Washington (11 electoral votes): Likely Democratic
Here are the states that Clinton would likely win...

Maine (4 electoral votes*): Lean Democratic
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes): Lean Democratic
Michigan (17 electoral votes): Lean Democratic

Minnesota (10 electoral votes): Lean Democratic
Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes): Lean Democratic
Oregon (7 electoral votes): Lean Democratic
New Hampshire (4 electoral votes): Likely Democratic
Washington (11 electoral votes): Likely Democratic
The article concludes...
Adding the Safe, Likely and Lean Democratic states leaves an Obama-led ticket well-positioned to win 259 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House, compared to 221 for McCain. A ticket headed by Clinton would lead McCain a bit more narrowly, 252-224.
Obama would need to win 21 more electoral votes to get to 270 and win the election. Here are the states that are the article considered as toss ups...
Colorado (9 electoral votes): Toss-Up
Virginia (13 electoral votes):
Toss-Up
Missouri (11 electoral votes): Toss-Up
Ohio (20 electoral votes): Toss-Up
New Mexico (5 electoral votes): Toss-Up
Iowa (7 electoral votes): Toss-Up
Clinton would need to win 28 more electoral votes
to get to 270 and win the election. Here are the states that are the article considered as toss ups...
Arkansas (6 electoral votes): Toss-Up
New Mexico (5 electoral votes): Toss-Up
Missouri (11 electoral votes): Toss-Up
Virginia (13 electoral votes): Toss-Up
Iowa (7 electoral votes): Toss-Up
Ohio (20 electoral votes): Toss-Up
Let the discussion begin!

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