Predicting the Presidential Race

I found this analysis of the Presidential race to be right on the money in most places (though I am not sure if I totally agree with the prediction at this point.).

I got this sinking feeling watching his remarkable speech Tuesday night. Obama is not the first visionary, change-oriented candidate to come along in the past three or four decades. Instead of Bobby Kennedy we ended up with Nixon. Instead of Teddy Kennedy we got ... Instead of Gore we got Bush ... Instead of Dean we got more Bush. Every single time. The issue deep down goes beyond the candidates, it lies with the split of the American people - who keep electing these folks.

If Hillary takes the Democratic primary, it will be very difficult for her to win the general election. It's not just about "change." More than anything else we are seeing a breakdown of old political patterns and a shift to a post-partisan politics of the sort that Ron Inglehart identifies, overlaid with a growing "throw-the-bums-out" sentiment. McCain appears more in line with post-partisanship, even if that is more image than reality: Clinton's entire campaign is about the power of partisanship. Of course, the media will drag out all the stuff from the last Clinton administration - the pardons, Whitewater, Monica-gate (even I get an icky feeling just thinking about it). And there are many Americans who when push comes to shove (even if they don't like McCain a whole lot) will decide they want to put an end to 20 years of the Bush-Clinton dynastic politics. If Obama fails to win the nomination, the ability for the Dems to bring in new voters will be hugely deflated.

So my prediction: Get ready for a McCain administration. With Huckabee on the ticket he will energize conservatives, the Republicans will come together, and he will clean up independents from Hillary. And then what will become of change and post-partisanship? Well, what exactly has McCain said he will do? a) fight the "islamo-facists" (what an awful, loaded term), b) stay for 100 more years in Iraq, and c) that he doesn't know much about the economy, but he's certain it's doing a whole lot better than in the 1990s.