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Chris Bowers takes a look at Hillary Clinton's best case scenario when it comes to the number of pledged delegates. Bowers uses the most recent polls in all of the upcoming contests until May 6th to determine the number of pledged delegates each candidate will likely win.
Even though Clinton is polling ahead in some of the states, she only gains a total of 4 pledged delegates when Obama currently has a lead of over 160 pledged delegates. Bowers concludes that Obama's lead in the number of pledged delegates is insurmountable.
Clinton now faces an insurmountable pledged delegate deficit. At this point, her only path to the nomination is to vastly outperform polling in most remaining states, and then utterly dominate Obama among superdelegates / uncommitted delegates and also to receive favorable rulings from the credentials committee.Bill Clinton has said that Hillary has to win Texas and Ohio. That isn't true. Hillary has to win Texas and Ohio by 15% - 20%, hope to get momentum to win Pennsylvania and the rest of the states by that same amount. Current polls show Obama winning in Texas, Clinton leading by around 5% in Ohio, and Clinton lead in Pennsylvania shrinking.
1 comment:
Check TRS, been saying this for almost a year. Democrats dislike Hillary, NPs dislike and distrust her and Rs despise her.
Hillary, the best known woman in the world (which was probably bad for her) is getting smoked by a guy who was a complete unknown four years ago.
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