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Yesterday, desmoinesdem at Bleeding Heartland asked how Obama would get 270 electoral votes in the general election.
Kos answers the question...
Iowa, Missouri, Colorado, New Mexico, Arkansas, Virginia, Ohio, and Nevada.
That's 76 electoral votes, already past the 42 sure-things that Jerome thinks Hillary gets (and really, Florida?). So if nothing else changed from 2004, that would be a 328-210 Obama victory. Beyond that, Obama will be competitive elsewhere. What, does Jerome really think that Latinos will choose McCain over Obama after 10 months of Republican immigrant bashing in the news (which will happen, whether McCain joins in or not), or that women will sit November out?
McCain is hated in Alaska for his position on ANWAR. Obama is also against such drilling, of course, but they expect that out of a Democrat. A Republican who opposes it is a traitor. Alaska would be my sleeper call for 2008. Arizona would be in play. Montana could be in play. Kentucky could be in play. West Virginia could be in play. Florida might be in play. And if nothing else, Obama would help close the margin in a lot of Red states, forcing cash-strapped Republicans to play defense across something closer to a 50-state strategy than the inevitable 18-state strategy we'll see out of Clinton. Heck, you're seeing it in this primary, with Obama running in every state, while Clinton brags about sitting out the various states (in an attempt to minimize his victories in places like Louisiana and Washington). She increases the battlefield over 2004, no doubt, but not as wide as Obama does through sheer appeal to independents and even some Republicans.
And yes, running tighter in Red states matters. Not only does it build toward the future (the 50-state strategy, of course), but it certainly matters to Democrats running down the ticket. Go around the country, especially in Red states like I have, and there's no doubt that just about ever Red state Democrat on the ballot wants Obama headlining this November.
4 comments:
Has anyone done a comparision of democratic and republican voter turnout in the primaries and caucus so far?
Arizona in play for Obama against McCain? That is a joke.
RDemocrat, a Kentuckian whose views I respect, says Obama runs about 30 points behind McCain in Kentucky.
Kos is wildly optimistic to put Ohio in Obama's column against McCain. The NRA will go after Obama hard, and McCain has a good shot of picking up a lot of Catholics and suburbanites.
McCain is hated in Alaska? Well, didn't the Deaniacs all hate Kerry? But they voted for him in November, just like most Alaskans will vote for McCain.
I repeat that I think Obama could beat McCain. However, I think his supporters are way too optimistic about the number of states he has in the bag.
These are the states that Obama can win... Iowa, Missouri, Colorado, New Mexico, Arkansas, Virginia, Ohio, and Nevada." Which of those is he most likely not win? Alaska and Arizona were longshots for Obama, but not out of the question.
My fellow Democrats are deluding themselves.
Go here,
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May08.html
to see that at least a lot of work has to be done, or that Obama isn't gonna win after all.
Democrats are underestimating the stupidity of republicans.
Basically, Democrats think they can win on policy, but they lose to "Flags, Apple Pie and fear mongering"
They think that, just because Bush's approval rating is 29 percent, and McCain is gonna do the same as Bush, it's a done deal.
If that were so, any Democrat would be up 20 points again mccsame
Democrats, both the politicians think that REASONS can win elections. They are so wrong.
Republicans, and that includes those hypocrites who label themselves independent, will listen to all the reasons, and think: yah shove it up your A... and will vote Republican.
It's a natural law. No matter how much Halliburton steals their tax money, no matter how bad their health care is, no matter how lousy their kids teachers: Republicans don't really listen. Basically, what some rev. Wright said years ago (NOT Obama himself), is more important than what mccain is gonna do in the future.
And there's always the racial thing, conveniently hiding behind a muslim thing.
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