Thursday, January 03, 2008

2008 Iowa Caucus Predictions

Thought I'd give it a shot at predicting tonight's caucus results.

I was getting the feeling last week that John Edwards was going to win, but the tide seems to be moving Obama's way the past few days.

So here they are...

Democrats
1. Barack Obama 38%
2. John Edwards 30%
3. Hillary Clinton 20%
4. Bill Richardson 7%
5. Joe Biden 5%
6. Chris Dodd 0%

Republicans (note the percentages are purely a guess here since I haven't paid as much attention to the latest pulls)
1. Mike Huckabee 34%
2. Mitt Romney 27%
3. John McCain 18%
4. Ron Paul 10%
5. Fred Thompson 8%
6. Rudy Giuliani 5%

I will be participating in my caucus here, so I won't be blogging during the caucuses. I will have some posts later tonight and tomorrow about the process and to analyze the results.

5 comments:

George Vreeland Hill said...

The Republican Party is a sick joke, and the people of this country are fed up with them.
From Nixon to Bush, and from Scooter to Larry "Toilet Stall" Craig, the Republicans have proven themselves to be a bunch of lying, corrupt, evil, perverted, over-spending crooks.
When you look at all the money Bill Clinton left this country, it makes us all cry to know that Bush spent it all.
When the money was gone, Bush went to China for help.
Just think, we owe money to China!
That is the Bush way.
Cheney is no better.
You can't trust either of them.
No one does.
Why are we in Iraq?
The war should be on terror, not in Iraq.
Iraq had nothing to do with 9/11, and yet Bush has spent all that money to fight "his" war.
Yes his, because many Republicans have backed off from the war.
By the way, the war in Iraq has cost the U.S. almost five hundred billion dollars.
Forget Rudy.
Rudy Giuliani is no hero.
While he is often called the hero of 9/11, the truth is that Rudy was a terrible leader during his years as mayor of New York City.
He made bad decisions and took a girlfriend while being married.
In fact, he even wanted his lover to live in the same house with his wife.
Most people would call this perverted.
New Yorkers were so sick of his antics, that they wanted him out of office.
Then came 9/11.
The only reason people call Giuliani a hero today, is because he just happened to be NYC's mayor during that bad time.
Any mayor would be looked at as a hero if they showed their face under those circumstances.
If there was no 9/11, Rudy would have become a joke.
This is not the kind of leader we want in the White House. In closing, the New York Post reported in their paper on April 23, that Giuliani spent more than $48,000 dollars of campaign money on posh hotels while claiming to have spent the least of all the Republican candidates.
Rudy is a good time leader, and does it with other people's money.
Forget Mitt.
His ads look bad.
He can't seem to get his facts right, and will say things to make himself look good.
Red flags go up around him.
I spoke with his son Tagg at the New Hampshire debates back in June (2007), and while he seemed like a nice man, Tagg could not get his facts right either.
The worst Republican as of late, though, is Larry Craig.
He is a lying pervert who wanted gay sex with a strange man on a dirty toilet seat.
He pled guilty, then said he was not guilty.
Say what?
He is another Republican moron.
Did you hear about Washington State Republican Rep. Richard Curtis?
He offered $1,000 to a young man for unprotected sex while dressed in women's lingerie.
This sort of thing just goes on and on with them.
Remember Mark Foley?
Here is a letter I wrote that was in many newspapers and Web sites:

Once again, the Republicans have turned my stomach with shocking and repulsive behavior.
Mark Foley, a Republican member (now ex-member) of Congress, has sent many e-mails with perverted sexual content to a sixteen year old boy.
This is the same man who while in Congress, backed a bill that was meant to protect children from child predators.
Foley himself, is a man who preyed on a child with lust.
What is also incomprehensible, is the fact that some Republicans knew of Foley’s behavior, and yet, did not take a hard stand against this until it became public news. If I had a teenage son and/or daughter, I would not want them to go near any Republican leader for fear of either or both becoming a victim of a sick Republican pervert.

George Vreeland Hill

There were more than three hundred such letters in newspapers in 2007 alone.
Many of them in New Hampshire.
There are thousands on the Internet.
No lie.
THOUSANDS!
This does not even include articles, ads, radio, TV and other areas where the public takes notice.
In fact, one Republican in California wanted me stopped once, because I was hurting some Republicans in their elections.
I just want to do my part in helping to get rid of every Republican scumbag.
From phone scams to the Union Leader (NH) covering up for Republicans, the garbage never ends.
But the Republican Party will end.
Did you know that George W. Bush once made fun of the issue of Weapons of Mass Destruction?
He did, and in front of some shocked people during a black-tie event in 2004.
He said.... (While looking under a piece of furniture) "Those weapons of mass destruction have got to be here somewhere."
Then, while pretending to look out of a window, Bush laughed as he said..... "Nope, no weapons over there."
While he was laughing, there were men and women fighting and dying in Iraq because of WMD.
George W. Bush should be removed from office because of that alone.
Face it, Bill Clinton lied about having sex, and was impeached because of it.
George W. Bush however, did far worse, as he laughed at the very people who are fighting for the United States of America!
That about sums it all up!
(By the way, this Bush/WMD was part of an article and letter I wrote as well.)
This leads us to John McCain.
All he seems to do is attack other candidates.
His Woodstock ad against Hillary Clinton was boring and without the facts.
He tells of Hillary wanting to spend a million dollars on a museum while he (McCain) supports spending more on the war in Iraq.
He wants you to believe that the Democrats are the big spenders, while it is McCain's Republican Party that has spent all the money Bill Clinton left us to a point where Bush had to borrow money from China.
Think about that again.
We owe to China.
That is the Republican way.
Also, it must be noted that McCain even laughed at war.
Remember when McCain changed the words of a Beach Boys song to Bomb, Bomb, Bomb, Bomb, Bomb, Iran?
McCain even laughed when he was done.
He thought starting a war with Iran was a laughing matter.
That is the real John McCain.
He just can't be trusted.
He is another George Bush, and you know what we got with him.
The Republican Party is a mess, and getting worse.
People do not trust any of them, and we are all tired of their act.
I am doing my best to make sure that no Republican wins an election.
Thank you for your time.

George Vreeland Hill

The Real Sporer said...

Dude, great predictions for the most part.

I always thought Obama would get a comfortable win but when I showed up at Indian Hills and every NP voter in Clive was there with the Ds, and most of 'em told me that they were there: a) to vote for Obama or b) to vote against Hillary I knew Evita's goose was cooked. Since a lot of these people are Rs who went NP to avoid the calls, that says a lot.

I thought Huck would win but not by 9! Have you heard this bullshit about 60% of Huck's vote was evangelical rural women. 1/3 of his vote came from Polk so it is almost mathematically (and is practically) impossible since the number of rural evangelical women in Polk, Linn, Scott, Dubuque and Black Hawk counties would be a rather small number. It's even sillier when you start looking at all the rural counties that Mitt won. The national conservative/MSM media have spun this so far wrong that it doesn't even kind of mirror reality.

The Real Sporer said...

Mr. Hill, are you a Ron Paul supporter or are you on the other side of the aisle with Dennis the Menace or Uncle Mike?

CR said...

The national conservative/MSM media have spun this so far wrong that it doesn't even kind of mirror reality.

Ted,

We're probably disagree on many issues, but I share your frustration with the media. I saw all of the Dem candidates who campaigned in Iowa, and the media seemed to be fitting the facts to their pre-determined stories.

Iowa Public Radio and Minnesota Public Radio held a town hall meeting to hear the issues that were compelling Iowans to caucus--and then they proceeded to dictate the discussion around issues that appear in the media. Of course, many were important issues, but as an example of a glaring omission, 10-20% of the people were wearing "The Heat Is On" T-shirts, but the moderator never really allowed global warming to be discussed.

Soon they're not even going to need us.

BlogD said...

Hill is a message-oriented comment spammer. He takes one comment with only a glancing relation to a topic, and he pastes the same comment in dozens of blogs.