New Zogby Poll in Iowa

There is a new Zogby Poll that shows a tight race in Iowa getting even tighter.

Here are the results (results from August in parenthesis)...

Clinton: 28 (30)
Obama: 25 (19)
Edwards: 21 (23)
Richardson: 9 (10)
Biden: 3 (3)
Dodd: 1 (0)
Kucinich: 0 (1)
Unsure: 12 (13)

The race even gets tighter when you take out the candidates that don't reach the 15% threshold to become viable.

Clinton: 30
Obama: 29
Edwards: 27
Not Sure: 15

According to Zogby...

However, the race tightens dramatically when second choices are factored into the mix – a critical wrinkle in the Iowa caucuses. In the caucuses, a first round of “balloting” is conducted, and those candidates who do not win at least 15% support are ruled “unviable” and supporters are directed to a second choice among those who remained “viable” before a second round of “balloting” is conducted.

The survey shows Edwards wins second–choice support from Richardson backers and from Biden backers – both experienced pols with long Washington resumes. Obama also benefited more as a second choice than Clinton, making the race extremely tight.

Being a caucus-goers 2nd choice is also important because of the viability threshold of 15% in the Iowa caucuses. Even Clinton, Obama, and Edwards might not be viable in every precinct, so you can win someone's vote by being their 2nd choice. Zogby has some insights on people's 2nd choices...

However, the picture changes a bit among second–choice voters, where Edwards wins 25% support, compared to 23% for Obama and 18% for Clinton.

This poll shows this race is a 3-way race and it is far from over in Iowa. The media will continue to try to make it a Clinton-Obama matchup, but Edwards is neck and neck with them here.