Friday, November 16, 2007

Did Obama Win the UAW's Endorsement?

Did Obama win the UAW endorsement? Well, yes and no.

From Marc Aminder...

(0) Sen. Barack Obama won a straw poll of UAW Region 4 locals. Region 4 includes Iowa.

(1) 48% of the voting members of UAW's Region 4 came from Illinois. Barack Obama comes from Illinois.

(2) 22% of the voting members come from Iowa. It turns out that, in today's straw balloting, John Edwards won twice as many Iowa locals as Obama did.

But the strength of Obama in Illinois overwhelmed Edwards (and Clinton).

(3) What happened today in Dubuque was not an official endorsement -- it was a recommendation to endorse -- the UAW technically hasn't given its regional council permission to endorse.

(4) Obama probably will get the UAW endorsement in Iowa... and it's certainly a helpful endorsement.... but it should not be treated as a surprise... nor should it technically be treated as an endorsement just yet.

It is looking like the Iowa delegates from the UAW will be split between Edwards and Obama, even if Obama officially wins the endorsement.

You have to remember that Gephardt won the UAW's endorsement in 2004 and that didn't help him much. On the flip side, many think it was the UAW's endorsement that carried Chet Culver to victory in 2006.


Anonymous said...

Interesting story. Union members are not automatons. I expect that people who voted for their locals to endorse one of the other candidates will caucus for the candidates of their choice rather than for Obama.

I don't think that the UAW endorsement made the difference for Culver. I suspect that mobilizing the pro-choice women's vote was more important for him in the 2006 primary. That is just a hunch.


omelas said...

How odd that anytime the management structure of the unions in this country move towards an endorsement it's Obama, but anytime you check so many of the local straw polls they are voting for Edwards? Look what happened in New Hampshire. Very fishy...