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There is an unofficial exit poll done at the Ames straw poll that shows Ron Paul ahead by a pretty large margin. The exit poll was conducted by the Vote in Sunshine group, which is the same group that had the lawsuit against the RPI dismissed over the use of Diebold voting machines. The group stated their main goal was...
achieving fair and accurate voting processes in America by returning to the use of and counting/saving/storing of paper ballots.Here are the results from the exit poll...
Iowa Straw Poll Exit PollAnother blog compared the official results with the exit polls.
Ron Paul______37.01%
M Huckabee___20.85%
T Tancredo____16.72%
Mitt Romney___10.03%
S Brownback___06.91%
T Thompson____04.35%
D Hunter_______01.34%
F Thompson____00.89%
Rudy Giuliani___00.67%
John McCain____00.56%
John Cox_______00.45%
It appears the results were mostly in-line with the “official” poll, with the exception of Paul, Romney and Brownback:
Candidate…………… Amount……VIS%…….Official………Difference
Ron Paul………..332……37.01%……9. 1%……..27.91%
Mike Huckabee……187……..20.85%…..18.1%. …….2.75%
Tom Tancredo………..150…….16.72%……..13.7% ……..3.02%
Mitt Romney….90……10.03%…….31.6%…….-21.57%
Sam Brownback….62……..6.91%……..15.3%……..-8.39%
Tommy Thompson…..39………4.35%……….7.3%……..-2.95%
Duncan Hunter………..12………1.34%……….1.2% ………..0.14%
Fred Thompson………..8………0.89%…….1. 4%…….-0.51%
Rudy Giuliani……….6………0.67%…… .1.3%……..-0.63%
John McCain……..5………0.56%…… 0.7%……..-0.14%
John Cox…………..4…………0.45%………..0.1%………0.35%
Some Ron Paul supporters say this is proof that the voting at the straw poll was rigged and Ron Paul actually won the event.
I actually think the difference stems from the fact that Ron Paul had hundreds of supporters at the Straw Poll from outside the state. I heard a spokesperson from the Ron Paul campaign say this on CSPAN's broadcast live from the event. These people could not vote because you had to have a Iowa ID to vote. I am pretty sure Ron Paul wasn't the only candidate that had supporters there from out of the state. If the group that conducted the straw poll asked some of the people who were from out of state the results would be skewed in favor of Ron Paul.
4 comments:
The number of Ron Paul supporters from out of state is irrelevant.
The exit poll voters, were a percentage of the straw poll voters, who had to show proof of Iowa residency prior to their voting in the first place. They voted in the exit poll as they left the straw poll booths. Therefore, ALL of voters who voted in both, were from Iowa.
Notice how accurate the results are between the exit poll percentages compared to the straw poll percentages, on all of the candidates except for Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Sam Brownback.
Does this not seem peculiar to anyone else?
As the exit poll voters voted as they were "exiting" from the straw poll booths, the extreme accuracy for certain candidates, and the horribly inaccuracy for Paul, Romney and Brownback, points to some serious monkey-business. It looks as though the candidates who poured the most money on the Iowa GOP were moved up in places accordingly. As they couldn't possibly allow Paul to have 1st place, and since Romney poured so much money into the Iowa GOP's pockets, they removed Paul, and installed Romney in 1st. They left Huckabee alone and kept him in 2nd. Since Brownback went into debt pouring money on the Iowa GOP, but not nearly as much as Romney, they bumped him ahead of Tancredo, putting him in 3rd. This bumped Tancredo down to 4th. They plugged Ron Paul into the then open fifth slot. The other places stayed the same.
The Iowa GOP has a history of being dirty, and this shows that nothing has changed.
I wasn't asked to participate in an exit poll after voting on Saturday. I don't think the exit poll was more accurate than the real voting.
Sour grapes, Ron Paulians.
The Diebold equipment doesn't deserve anyone's trust. That said,a couple of things:
Exit polls have been very wrong before: Michael Dukakis won the national exit sample in 1988.
Jerry Depew wrote that an exit worker told him Romney supporters were "putting their noses in the air." So some distortion could be expected.
Putting the eggs into the exit-poll basket raises expectations of conclusive proof of fraud, and when it doesn't turn up, and when pollsters who do exit polling get angry at people for saying that they do prove fraud (talk to some), it may actually diminish the momentum toward reckoning with the grave problems with voting machines and the companies that make them.
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