Monday, July 09, 2007

Romney's Big Lead in Iowa

Politico takes an in depth look at the Republican field in Iowa and concludes Mitt Romney has a commanding lead in the state. They discuss McCain cutting back staff, ask if Rudy is taking Iowa seriously, and they take a look at the darkhorse campaigns of Brownback, Huckabee, and Tommy Thompson.

Politico does point out a possible winning strategy for Giuliani...

For Giuliani, his best caucus hopes may lie in the politics of pluralities. Should Thompson play in Iowa, conservatives may split their vote between the actor/politician and Romney, with some second-tier candidates also picking up support.
Romney has put together a good organization in Iowa, has raised the money, and was the first one airing TV ads in the state. That has obviously helped him gain support. However, one reason Romney looks so strong in Iowa is because the other candidates look so weak. Romney's lead is as much from his work as it is because of the other candidates lack of support.

The second tier candidates haven't been able to spark much enthusiasm. I don't see the excitement on the Republican side in Iowa that I do on the Democratic side. That could be from the quality of candidates, it could be from Bush's sinking poll numbers, or it could just be how each party sets up their campaigns.

In the end, they quote Sioux County chairman, where they say...
There are still a number of conservatives who are looking for somebody that they can rally behind," Lundberg said. "At some point, you'll make a decision to back somebody and you're going to put time and effort into it -- and it's tough to put time and effort in a losing cause.
What I want to know is what Republicans plan on doing if they decided all the candidates are losers?


Anonymous said...

They're not 'losers'. They wouldn't be able to play if they were.

Ben said...

Of interest to us Marshalltown boys...fellow Marshalltownian Terry Nelson resigned as McCain's campaign manager today. NPR had a nice little bit on All Things Considered, dealing with the obvisouly failed campaign strategy thought up by Nelson. To paraphrase, in order to appear to be a presumptive nominee and secure donations the McCain campaign faked it, hired a huge staff, and acted like a front runner. This despite having little money or real support. The house of cards that Nelson built has collapsed in rather spectacular fashion and now McCain is all but written out of the primaries unless some act of God strikes down the 1st tier candidates.