MyDD Chimes in On Possible Latham Senate Run

Jonathon Singer of MyDD wrote last night about the news Tom Latham might run for Senate against Tom Harkin for Senate.

The prospect of a Senate run by Latham is somewhat good news on a number of fronts for the Democrats.

When it comes to the race for the United States Senate in Iowa this cycle, Republicans have often been fooled by Harkin's progressive streak and his often unimpressive polling numbers that he can be easily defeated. As was noted above, five sitting Republican Congressmen have already lost races to Harkin -- and often ones they believed they should have won.

I do not mean to prejudge the outcome of next fall's election, but I am highly skeptical that Latham is the man to break the Republicans' bad streak against Harkin -- who, I might add, has seen his approval rating seemingly settle in the mid- to upper-50s after previously settling in the lower- to mid-50s earlier in the year, according to SurveyUSA polling. Latham's roughly $200,000 on hand is not nearly the base upon which to run a campaign against an entrenched incumbent, particularly not one who has close to $2 million in the bank. Compounding the difficulty for Latham would be the fact that Iowa trended notieceably and decidedly towards the Democrats in 2006, with the Dems winning the governorship, picking up two congressional seats and gaining control over both the state House and the state Senate -- the first time the Democrats in the state have controlled the Governor's mansion and both chambers of the state legislature since Lyndon Johnson was President.

But even better than the fact that Harkin would not likely have too much of a problem dispelling with a challenge from Latham, a Senate bid by the Congressman would open up Iowa's 4th congressional district, which leans neither towards the Republicans nor the Democrats in presidential elections, according to the Cook Partisan Voting Index. Given the aforementioned trend in the Hawkeye state, coupled with the fact that the Democrats currently hold a strong lead in the generic congressional ballot question, it would be fair to say that Iowa 4 would be one of the Democrats' top pick-up opportunities in 2008 should Latham decide to run for the Senate.

Latham still might not make the plunge, as indicated by his second quote in the article above. But here's to hoping that he will.