Vilsack's Out, Let the Games Begin!

It seems that every blog out there has a post or posts up already about Tom Vilsack dropping out of the presidential race.

Drew at Bleeding Heartland live blogs Vilsack's press conference this morning.

John Deeth wonders about who Vilsack and Tom Harkin (who endorsed Vilsack) will be endorsing. My original thinking was that Vilsack will endorse Hillary, but Vilsack's new anti-war stance clashes with Hillary hawkish attitude. Harkin is in an interesting position since he has been colleagues with Dodd and Biden. In the end, I think Harkin will be supporting Obama.

Iowa Progress talks about the timing of Vilsack dropping out almost 11 months before the caucuses saying...

What the most disturbing thing is that Vilsack’s campaign is ending this early. In 1960, John F. Kennedy didn’t start his campaign until December 1959, in 2000, George W. Bush didn’t start to run until June 1999, now we have candidates dropping out 21 months before the election. It is a disturbing trend.

Iowa Progress then takes a look at Vilsack's money situation and concludes Vilsack lost the gamble even before getting to Nevada...

But when your monthly overhead is higher than your reported cash on head, that’s not good budgeting at any time–especially a year before the caucuses. If Vilsack hadn’t hired so many staffers so quickly, he’d probably still be a candidate today. He took a gamble that the money would be there to pay all of the people he hired. He was wrong. It was a high-risk, high reward approach to running for President. It didn’t work out. And that’s why Tom Vilsack dropped out.

The question now is who will gain the most from Vilsack's departure?

It is possible that the support from Vilsack's team gets split by the other candidates. That would mean the candidate that would gain the most of Vilsack leaving the race would be the person who is winning now, John Edwards.

Blog for Iowa chimed in saying that he is hearing Obama is making connections with a lot of former Kerry staffers. The biggest catch of former Kerry staffers is John Norris, who was Kerry's Iowa Field Director.

I remembered hearing back in the fall some connections between Norris and Obama. A quick search of the archives and I found I posted this on November 26, 2006...

The Des Moines Register had a story this morning about Barack Obama courting advisers, such as John Norris, Steve Hildebrand, and Dick Myers, and getting advice for a possible campaign.

The first-term Illinois senator has surrounded himself with advisers rich in experience in Iowa, the leadoff caucus state.

Obama has vaulted to the top tier among prospective candidates for the Democratic Party's nomination, even as the new star in the party says he has not made up his mind about running.

The Iowa connections of Obama's campaign advisers and the senator's behind-the-scenes inquiry into the Iowa caucuses are hardly an announcement that he is running for president. But they show he is visualizing the presidential campaign process, in the event he decides to run.

Hildebrand is already on Obama's staff and landing Norris would be a huge bump in the field in Iowa.

I am not the only one that thinks so. John Deeth was back posting this quote from Jerome Armstrong of MyDD...

"There was just not a road beyond Iowa. Whoever lands John Norris will be the winner from Vilsack dropping out."

So if you put the pieces together after Vilsack ducking out, I feel Obama has the best chance at making gains. He is in position to gain the support from the 2 biggest Vilsack backers in Harkin and Norris. If he can even secure one of their support, he will have the Iowa connections that will help increase his poll numbers.

Anyway, with Vilsack out of the race, the Iowa caucuses are now wide open. Iowans are ready to open up their living rooms, meet the candidates, and discuss the issues. Let the games begin!