Sunday, January 21, 2007

Hillary Is In, but She Won't Win

Saturday morning Hillary took the first step by announcing she has filed the necessary paperwork. Clinton will have an experienced team of advisors and great connections for fundraising. However, she has been in the spotlight for a long time now and the majority of people already have their opinions formed on her. You know what they say about first impressions.

I see her candidacy being similar to Jim Nussle's run for Governor here in Iowa in 2006. Nussle was known around Iowa. In all of the polls leading up to the race, Nussle had trouble getting higher than in the low 40's. Nussle lost the race with 44% of the vote.

In a Washington Post - ABC poll released on Saturday, Hillary leads all Democratic candidates nationwide with 41%. Obama comes in at 17%, Edwards at 11%, Gore at 10%, and Kerry at 8%. Hillary again is in the low 40's. I get the felling that Obama is taking some of Edwards and Gore support and vice versa. My top 3 candidates right now would be Obama, Edwards, and Gore and I know a lot of people who like those 3 better than Hillary. If you add up their totals, you come up with 38%, which is pretty much a tie with Hillary.

In Iowa, Hillary will have a hard time appealing to progressives (which will go towards Edwards and Kucinich and maybe Obama) and will have a hard time out centristing fellow DLC'er Tom Vilsack. She has yet to make a trip to Iowa, so she might not even campaign here. If she does campaign here, I don't see Hillary getting higher than 3rd.

I found a recent poll from Rasmussen that has Hillary and Obama pretty much tied at 22% and 21% respectively among Democrats nationally. Edwards is in 3rd at 15%, followed by Gore at 7%, Kerry at 4%, and Biden at 2%.


benny06 said...

I read in Chicago Tribune she is going to DM and Cedar Rapids--I think next Sat.

Did you get to the Edwards TH yesterday? If so, what were your impressions?

noneed4thneed said...

I didn't attend the event. I chose to sleep in instead of get up at 7:00 to catch my ride to Iowa City.

I might try and attend one of Hillary's events next week because I have a feeling she won't be in the state much.