Looking at the Key Counties in Each District

Here are the counties that I will keeping a close eye on in each district. I didn't include the 3rd because I expect Chris, at Political Forecast, will have those results.

1st District
As I mentioned in a previous post, Dubuque is a key in the district. I will also be looking at Scott Co to see how Whalen does on his home turf.

**Update at 10:30**
Braley won Scott Co. 53%-45% with a margin of over 4,000 votes.
**Update at 10:42**
The Quad City Times is calling it for Braley
**Update at 12:36**
Braley won Dubuque Co. 59% to 40% wiht a margin of over 6,000 votes.

2nd District
Loebsack needs big margins in Linn Co.and Johnson Co.

**Update at 10:44**
Loebsack is doing very well in Des Moines and Lee Counties getting 57% and 58% respectively.
**Update 11:04**
Chris Woods is hearing that KCCI is about to call the race in the 2nd District for Loebsack. CNN has Loesback up 51%-49% with 71% of the precincts in.
**Update 11:50**
This one is going down to the wire. Loebsack is up by just under 1000 votes with 94% in. I was totally off on my analysis of Linn Co. Loebsack won Linn by about 275 votes. Still some of Johnson Co that needs to report.
**Updatee 1:06**
100% of Johnson County has reported and Loebsack won 60%-40% with over a 6,000 vote margin. Loebsack had an overall victory margin of less than 6,000 votes.

4th District
Spencer should do well in Story County, his home county. Spencer will need to win Cerro Gordo, Marshall, Warren, and Webster, and not get blown out in Dallas.

**Update 12:37**
Spencer won Story Co, but lost all of the other important counties. His closest was Cerro Gordo where he pulled 48%.

5th District
I will be watching Sioux County to see how big of margin Steve King actually has out there. Sioux Co. went a larger margin for Bush in 04 than Bush won the entire state of Iowa by. As John Deeth said...

Put it this way: if Sioux County were sawn off the rest of the state and annexed to South Dakota, John Kerry would have won Iowa. The Sioux County Bush margin was more than the STATEWIDE margin.

**Update 11:55**
King won Sioux County by about 8,400 votes with 82%.